[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Aug 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

The center of Tropical Storm Idalia is in the Yucatan Channel,
near 19.7N 85.3W,at 28/0600 UTC. This position also is 132 nm, or
245 km, to the S of the NW tip of Cuba. IDALIA is stationary. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots.
Tropical storm-force winds are: within 40 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 20 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that
are 12 feet or greater is: within 30 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within
0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights that are near
the center are 13 feet. The hazards that are forecast to affect
land are: storm surge, wind, and rainfall, for parts of the
Yucatan Peninsula, for Cuba, and for Florida. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from the coast of Honduras
northward from 82W westward, and in much of Guatemala, near an
east-to-west oriented surface trough. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is between 70W and 80W.

The center of Hurricane Franklin, at 28/0300 UTC, is near 26.4N
70.5W. FRANKLIN is moving toward the NNW, or 330 degrees,
07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to
110 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 110 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 100 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant; within 80 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and
within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Hurricane-force
winds are: within 20 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within
20 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 10 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and within 20 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or
greater is: within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant;
within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 120 nm of
the center in the SW quadrant; and within 180 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights that are near the center
are 33 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 25N to 28N
between 69W and 72W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from from 10N to 30N between 54W and 66W; and elsewhere
from the northern sides of the Caribbean Sea islands northward
from 66W westward. The swells that are being generated by Franklin
are expected to begin affecting Bermuda by Sunday night. It is
likely that these swells are going to cause life- threatening surf
and rip current conditions late this weekend into early next
week, in parts of the U.S.A. east coast. Please, consult
bulletins/forecasts from your local weather office.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. Please, refer to
the following website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more information
about Tropical Storm Idalia and Hurricane FRANKLIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to the west
of the tropical wave, and within 210 nm to the east of the
tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 16N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 06N to 11N. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere within 360 nm on either side of the
rest of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal borders of Senegal
and Mauritania, to 14N20W, to 09N38W 10N51W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 10N from 30W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Idalia, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. All the action is
centering around the expectations of Tropical Storm Idalia, whose
center is in the Yucatan Channel. A 1010 mb high pressure center
is near 23N97W. A frontal boundary is from 60 nm to 120 nm to the
north of the coastline, between the Florida Panhandle and the
upper Texas Gulf coast. Most if not all the associated
precipitation is inland.

The sea heights are reaching: from 2 feet to 3 feet from 90W
westward; 4 feet in the east central sections of the Gulf of
Mexico; from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate or slower
wind speeds are everywhere.

Tropical Storm Idalia is near 19.8N 85.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving north at 0 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts
to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Idalia will
move to 20.7N 85.1W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near
22.2N 85.0W Mon evening, 24.2N 84.9W Tue morning, 26.8N 84.3W Tue
evening, inland to 29.6N 82.8W Wed morning, and weaken to a
tropical storm near 32.0N 80.1W Wed evening. Idalia will change
little in intensity as it moves to 34.3N 73.4W late Thu. High
pressure and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of
Idalia late in the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Idalia, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel.

The sea heights are reaching: 2 feet to 4 feet from 70W eastward;
and from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere. Mostly moderate to some fresh
SE winds are from 70W eastward. Fresh to moderate SE winds are
from 120 nm to 320 nm to the east of T.S. Idalia from 14N
northward. Gentle to some moderate winds are elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Idalia is near 19.8N 85.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving north at 0 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts
to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Idalia will
move to 20.7N 85.1W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near
22.2N 85.0W Mon evening, 24.2N 84.9W Tue morning, 26.8N 84.3W Tue
evening, inland to 29.6N 82.8W Wed morning, and weaken to a
tropical storm near 32.0N 80.1W Wed evening. Other than Idalia,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin E of 80W
through early Mon. High pressure will build westward across the
western Atlantic late Mon through Thu as Hurricane Franklin lifts
north of the region. This will lead to moderate to fresh trade
winds in the eastern Caribbean by Mon night, then in the central
Caribbean by Tue, locally strong there.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Hurricane Franklin.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that cyclonic
circulation center is near 27N51W. INVEST AL92W was near the same
area during the last 24 hours. Precipitation: numerous strong is
from 26N to 28N between 49W and 51W. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the areas that are from 28N northward between 50W and
62W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 22N
northward between 40W and 52W.

A gale-force wind warning for the METEO-FRANCE marine zone AGADIR
ended at 28/0300 UTC. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to
9 feet from 25N northward from 20W eastward. Near gale-force NE
winds are from 20N to 24N from 20W eastward, and from 27N to 29N
between the Canary Islands and 20W. Strong NE winds are from 18N
northward from 25W eastward. Fresh NE winds are in elsewhere from
18N northward from 27W eastward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the area that
is from 20N northward between 20W and 40w. A surface trough
passes through 31N34W, to 28N40W. Precipitation: all the
precipitation is from 30N northward between 27W and 40W.
The sea heights in this area are ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the E and SE of the line 31N18W
23N24W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from 20N northward
from 45W eastward.

Moderate or slower wind speeds, and moderate seas, cover the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Franklin is near 26.4N 70.5W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving north-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt
with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 962 mb.
Franklin will move to 27.3N 71.0W Mon morning, 28.9N 71.2W Mon
evening, 30.4N 70.7W Tue morning, exiting the region to 32.2N
69.5W Tue evening. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Idalia is near 19.8N
85.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 0 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 992 mb. Idalia will move to 20.7N 85.1W Mon morning,
strengthen to a hurricane near 22.2N 85.0W Mon evening, 24.2N
84.9W Tue morning, 26.8N 84.3W Tue evening, inland to 29.6N 82.8W
Wed morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.0N 80.1W Wed
evening. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to
34.3N 73.4W late Thu. Expect producing increasing winds and seas
offshore of central and northern Florida with the passage of
Idalia.

$$
mt/jl
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