[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Aug 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Franklin is centered near 25.9N 70.0W at 27/2100 UTC
or 280 nm NNE of Grand Turk Island, moving NNW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are around 32
ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
24N to 28N and between 69W and 74W. Additional strengthening is
forecast, and Franklin is forecast to become a major hurricane on
Monday. Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin
affecting Bermuda by tonight. These swells are also likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
beginning of this week along portions of the east coast of the
United States. Please consult products from your local weather
office for details.

Tropical Storm Idalia is centered near 20.1N 85.5W at 27/2100
UTC or 80 nm ESE of Cozumel Mexico, moving NE at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from
12N-23N between 75W-90W. A slow, possibly erratic, motion is
expected overnight. A generally northward to north-northeastward
motion at an increasing forward speed is expected on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the
northeast Gulf coast late Tuesday. Idalia is expected to become a
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday.
Additional strengthening is likely while Idalia approaches the
northeastern Gulf coast.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Franklin and Idalia.

Gale Warning in the far E Atlantic Ocean: Meteo-France has a Gale
Warning in place for the Agadir zone until 28/0000 UTC. Latest
satellite-derived wind data captured strong to near gale-force
northerly winds off Morocco. Seas are 8-12 ft. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/ for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 11N and between 27W and 36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W, south of
15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 08N to 15N and between 46W and 52W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 11N51W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical waves described above, no significant
convection prevails near this boundary at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES for details on Tropical Storm
Idalia in the NW Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche along 20N and
W of 91W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail from
20N to 24N and W of 94W. A weak pressure pattern prevails across
the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate or weaker winds. Seas of
3-5 ft are noted in the south-central and SW Gulf, while 1-3 ft
are occurring elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Idalia will move to near 20.5N
85.3W Mon morning, then strengthen steadily and reach near 21.7N
85.0W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 23.4N 84.9W
Tue morning, reach near 25.6N 84.5W Tue afternoon, to near 28.7N
83.7W Wed morning, and move inland across northern Florida and
weaken to a tropical storm near 31.3N 81.9W Wed afternoon. High
pressure and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of
Idalia late in the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES for details on Tropical Storm
Idalia in the NW Caribbean Sea.

Aside from Idalia, a weak pressure pattern prevails across the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present in
the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
prevalent in the central Caribbean. No significant convection is
seen in the central or eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Idalia will move to near 20.5N
85.3W Mon morning, to near 21.7N 85.0W Mon afternoon, strengthen
to a hurricane near 23.4N 84.9W Tue morning, reach 25.6N 84.5W Tue
afternoon, and move inland across NE Florida and weaken to a
tropical storm Wed afternoon. Other than Idalia, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across the basin E of 80W through
early Mon. High pressure will build westward across the western
Atlantic late Mon through Thu as Hurricane Franklin lifts north of
the region. This will lead to moderate to fresh trade winds in
the eastern Caribbean by Mon night, then in the central Caribbean
by Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Idalia.

Outside of Franklin, a couple of surface troughs located to the
northeast of the Leeward Islands are generating a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the central Atlantic. Recent
scatterometer satellite data indicate that the strongest storms
are producing fresh to strong winds.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1033
mb high pressure system north of the Azores, resulting in moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas to the west of 25W. E of 25W
and N of 20N, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in NW Africa sustain fresh to near gale-force northerly
winds. Seas in these waters are 6-12 ft, with the strongest winds
and highest seas occurring within 90 nm of the African coast.

For the forecast, Hurricane Franklin will continue to intensify
and move to near 27.0N 70.6W Mon morning, near 28.5N 71.0W Mon
afternoon, near 30.0N 70.9W Tue morning, near 31.5N 69.9W Tue
afternoon, then turn more NE and exit the region. Meanwhile,
Tropical Storm Idalia is near 20.1N 85.5W at 5 PM EDT, moving
northeast at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to
45 kt. Minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Idalia will move to
near 20.5N 85.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 23.4N
84.9W Tue morning, then move inland across northern Florida Wed,
producing increasing winds and seas offshore of central and
northern Florida.

$$
ERA
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