[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 252326
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles east of the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with an area of low pressure over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western
Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions could become more conducive for development over the
weekend, and a tropical depression could form early next week while
the system moves generally northwestward over the central
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
Satellite imagery indicates the remnants of former Tropical Storm
Emily have become absorbed by an elongated area of low pressure
located more than 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Tropical
cyclone formation is not expected due to unfavorable environmental
conditions while this system merges with a nearby frontal boundary
over the north central Atlantic during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
early next week. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the latter part of next week while the system moves westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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