[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 251745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles east of the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized,
with increasing thunderstorm activity and a better-defined
low-level circulation.  Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico.  Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western
Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
A trough of low pressure located roughly 1000 miles east-northeast
of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is
producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are becoming unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation, and the low is expected to merge
with a frontal boundary over the north central Atlantic in the next
day or so.  For additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located about midway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the northern Leeward Islands.  Environmental conditions
could become more conducive for development over the weekend, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the central subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
early next week. Some slow development of this system is then
possible late next week while the system moves westward across the
Tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
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