[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 220854
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harold Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Air Force Hurricane Hunter wind observations indicate that the
cyclone strengthened to a tropical storm earlier this morning.
However, the circulation is not very well defined and the low-level
center is somewhat elongated from south to north.  Imagery from the
Brownsville WSR-88D radar shows broad cyclonic turning, with curved
rain bands moving onshore of the south Texas coast.

Harold is embedded in strong deep-layer easterlies on the southern
periphery of a large anticyclone over the east-central United
States.  As a result, the cyclone is moving fairly briskly toward
the west-northwest at around 285/16 kt.  This general motion should
continue through tonight, and the official forecast is quite
similar to the previous one.  This is also very close to the latest
corrected consensus, HCCA prediction.

The system still has a short time to strengthen over the warm Gulf
waters, and the latest SHIPS guidance shows slight strengthening
within the next 12 hours.  This is reflected in the official
forecast.  Since the cyclone does not have a well-defined inner
core, however, rapid intensification is not likely before landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Harold is expected across
South Texas through early Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash
and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible
landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday through
Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
today through Tuesday evening.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area,and
are possible in the watch area, within a few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 25.8N  95.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 26.5N  97.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/0600Z 27.8N 101.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/1800Z 29.5N 104.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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