[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 220849
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 AM AST Tue Aug 22 2023

Gert is a very disorganized system and may no longer have a closed
circulation.  Consequently, we'll await further justification
from the conventional visible imagery and this morning's
scatterometer passes.  The current intensity estimate remains at 25
kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB.

The statistical-dynamical SHIPS intensity guidance suggests
that strong shear should weaken the system further while it moves
west-northwestward, and Gert is forecast to open up into a trough of
low-pressure, and this is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast.
Once again, no significant changes were made to the NHC track or
intensity forecasts, which is also in agreement with the latest
multi-model consensus and global model forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 17.2N  58.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 17.6N  59.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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