[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 201446
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

Visible satellite imagery this morning continues to show a
partially exposed center, with persistent deep convection displaced
slightly to the north and east of the depression.  Based on a blend
of objective and subjective satellite estimates, the initial
intensity estimate for this advisory remains 30 kt.

Although deep convection has persisted this morning, deep-layer
westerly shear is expected to increase to near 40 kt today and
remain steady during the next 24 hours. Further, dry mid-level air
to the north of the system will likely inhibit well-organized and
sustained deep convection. Global models and ensemble systems are in
agreement that intensification of the depression is unlikely, and
thus the official forecast has the depression as a remnant low in
24 h and dissipated in 36 h.

The depression has continued moving slightly south of due west this
morning, and it is expected to turn slightly north of due west
today, with this general motion expected to continue until
dissipation occurs. Given the continued motion toward the
west-southwest, the official track forecast lies slightly to the
south of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 16.8N  53.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 16.9N  55.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 17.2N  57.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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