[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 201438
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

The large area of low pressure we have been monitoring
over the last several days to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands
has finally developed a well-defined circulation per recently
received satellite wind data. In addition, the scatterometer wind
data also suggest the system has developed a robust wind field on
its northern semicircle, with ASCAT-B/C both showing believable
wind retrievals in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore, advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Emily this morning with maximum
sustained winds of 45 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest
1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix.

The estimated motion of the tropical storm is slowly off to the
west-northwest, at 300/9 kt. Over the next several days, Emily
should maintain a general west-northwestward motion as it remains
steered by a low-level ridge centered to its north. A gradual turn
to the north is anticipated after Emily becomes a remnant low,
rounding the southern periphery of this subtropical ridge. The track
guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the
initial track forecast lies in between the simple and corrected
consensus aids.

Emily might already be near its peak intensity, as vertical wind
shear is expected to substantially increase over the cyclone in the
next 24-36 hours as it remains embedded in a fairly dry mid-level
environment. While it is possible a bit more intensification occurs
today, it seems more likely the system will soon succumb to the
increasingly hostile environment over the next several days. Both
the GFS and ECMWF suggest Emily will cease to produce organized
convection in about 48 hours, and the official intensity forecast
shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time. There is
some chance the environment becomes more favorable again in 4-5
days, but a regeneration scenario will not be shown in the official
forecast for now.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 19.5N  38.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 20.3N  39.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 20.9N  41.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 21.5N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 22.5N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0000Z 23.6N  47.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 25.1N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z 29.8N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z 36.0N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin
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