[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 200519
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However,
recent satellite wind data indicate the surface circulation is
elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions
still appear generally favorable for development, and a short-lived
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while
it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic. By Monday, upper-level winds are forecast to
strengthen over the system, and further development is not expected.
For additional information on this system, including gale warnings,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Caribbean (AL90):
An area of low pressure over the far eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing showers and thunderstorms with some signs of organization.
Additional development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of this
week. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central Caribbean during the
next couple of days, then turn northward and move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean by midweek. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles
during the next couple of days. Interests in the eastern and central
Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the Straits of Florida and
the southern Florida peninsula will move into the Gulf of Mexico
later today, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form
early this week. Some slow development of this system could occur
thereafter as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph, and a
tropical depression could form as it approaches the western Gulf of
Mexico coastline by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week
while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net