[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 192345
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Six, located roughly 1300 miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for further development, and
a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or so while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at
about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic.  By early next
week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase,
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Near the Windward Islands (AL90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure near the Windward Islands. Some additional
development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could
form by early next week while this system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over portions of the Windward Islands during the next couple of
days.  Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the Florida peninsula is
expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a
broad area of low pressure is expected to form. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the
western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Near the coast of Africa:
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
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