[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands
along 22W, from 17N southward, moving W at 15 kt.

The axis of a tropical wave is just off the coast of Africa near
17W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N E of 24W.
This system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest, with
an area of low pressure forming in a day or two just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of the low is possible
over the weekend before environmental conditions become
unfavorable early next week.

An axis of a tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 40W,
from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Low pressure has developed
in association with this wave where it interacts with the monsoon
trough. This 1009 mb low pressure is now centered behind the wave
axis, near 11N34W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 33W and 43W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this elongated low, and a tropical depression may form during
the next several days while the system moves WNW at 10 to 15 kt in
the central Tropical Atlantic.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Caribbean near 64W, from
18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Convection previously associated
with this wave has generally diminished today.

The axis of a tropical wave is moving across Central America near
88W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward into the east Pacific,
moving W at 15 kt. Convection with this wave is now confined W of
the area over Central America and the eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes near coastal Dakar near 15N17W to 14N25W
to 12N42W to 12N49W. The ITCZ continues from 12N49W to 11N61W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N
between 24W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The diurnal surface trough moving west through the Bay of Campeche
has generally diminished today, but scattered moderate convection
lingers over the western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a stationary
front is noted just inland of the northern Gulf coast, with a weak
pre-frontal trough noted along 29N from offshore the Florida
Panhandle to the offshore Texas. Scattered moderate convection
exists within about 60 nm either side of the trough. Despite these
features, weak high pressure dominates the basin, providing light
and variable winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough will continue to support
isolated thunderstorms across the N Gulf today and tonight. A
surface ridge over the central Gulf will support mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Windward Islands,
otherwise dry conditions prevail. Fresh trades are noted in the
central Caribbean, with moderate winds elsewhere, except gentle
winds in the NW basin and S of the eastearn extension of the East
Pacific monsoon trough along 10N in the far SW Caribbean. Seas are
5 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere,
lesser in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong tradewinds will prevail
across the central Caribbean today. The pressure gradient between
the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will loosen tonight,
resulting in a slight decrease in winds over the area for the next
few days. Gentle to moderate trades and seas will prevail
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The dominating feature in the basin is the Bermuda to Azores
ridge. This is leading to mainly gentle E winds N of 25N, with the
gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ and monsoon trough leading
to moderate to fresh trades S of 25N. Some moderate to fresh SW
winds are occuring N of the Bahamas, as an eastward moving front
along the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast passes N of the waters.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted in this region. Some
fresh to locally strong winds have developed within about 100 nm
of the center of a 1009 mb low pressure to the SW of the Cabo
Verde Islands, that is depicted in more detail in the tropical
waves section above. Other convection associated with the monsoon
trough and tropical waves is also described in the section above.
Seas across the basin are mainly 5 to 8 ft, with areas NW of a
31N60W to Turks and Caicos line having somewhat lower seas of 3 to
5 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong tradewinds
will pulse off Hispaniola each evening through the weekend. Fresh
tradewinds will develop south of 25N starting Thu and diminishing
again on Sat. A cold front will approach the NW waters then stall,
but fresh SW winds can be expected Thu through Fri morning in the
NW waters. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

$$
KONARIK
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