[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160844
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Aug 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is just off the coast of Africa near
17W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N E of 20W.
This system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest, with
an area of low pressure forming in a couple of days near or just
to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of the
low is possible over the weekend before environmental conditions
become unfavorable early next week.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near
37W/38W, from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N
between 32W and 41W. A perturbation has developed in association
to the tropical wave within the monsoon trough. The tropical wave
will continue moving westward while this perturbation remains in
its wake. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this perturbation, and a tropical depression could
form during the next several days while moving toward the west or
west- northwest across the central tropical Atlantic.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Caribbean near 63W, from
18N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 10N to 13N between 58W and 62W.

The axis of a tropical wave is moving across Central America near
86W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward into the east Pacific,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are occurring in the Gulf
of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Dakar near 14N17W to
13N19W to 13N31W to 11N38W to 13N47W to 12N50W. The ITCZ continues
from 12N50W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 21W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough has moved off the Yucatan peninsula, and is
currently over the SW Gulf supporting moderate winds to the east
of the trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the Gulf
waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 1-2 ft
over the remainder of the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula
each night, supporting moderate to locally fresh winds west of the
Yucatan. Elsewhere, a ridge over the Gulf will support mostly
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through
Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are over the south central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh winds over the north central Caribbean. Moderate
winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
winds over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail
across the south-central Caribbean today. The pressure gradient
will loosen tonight, resulting in a slight decrease in winds over
the area. Moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging dominate the entire subtropical waters, which is
supporting moderate to fresh E winds W of 40W S of 25N and mainly
fresh NE winds E of 40W. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse off Hispaniola each evening. Fresh E winds will develop S of
25N starting Thu. A cold front will approach the NW waters then
stall, but fresh SW winds can be expected Thu and Thu night in the
NW waters. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

$$
AL
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