[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Aug 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 16N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation also is close to the
monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W, from 20N southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 11N to 15N. Isolated moderate is to the
east of the tropical wave, and within 360 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from 14N northward. This wave is moving through an
area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. The upper level wind flow
covers the Caribbean Sea between 63W and Central America.

A tropical wave is along 90W/91W, from 22N southward, moving
westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. This tropical wave is moving
through the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. An inland
Mexico northwest-to-southeast oriented surface trough is reaching
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
numerous strong is on the southern side of the surface trough,
extending into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Isolated moderate is from
22N southward from 90W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 11N30W, and 09N43W. The ITCZ continues from
09N43W, to 08N48W 09N53W, and 08N58W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is: from 11N to 12N between 21W and 23W, and
from 08N to 10N between 25W and 31W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere from 04N to 17N from the 35W/36W
tropical wave eastward; and within 180 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ between 38W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details about
the 90W/91W tropical wave.

A surface trough passes through southern Georgia, through northern
Florida, to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Broad 500 mb and 700 mb
cyclonic wind flow covers the central sections of the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
22N to 28N from 95W eastward.

The sea heights are reaching: 3 feet from the middle Texas Gulf
coast southward, covering the rest of the western half of the Gulf
of Mexico; 2 feet in the SE corner of the area; 1 foot in the
north central and NE sections of the area. Fresh NE-to-E winds are
from 22N southward between 92W and 95W. Moderate SE winds are in
the rest of the Gulf from 90W westward. Gentle winds are in the
eastern half of the area.

A trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night
supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan. Elsewhere, a ridge
over the northern Gulf will support mostly gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas across the basin through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details
about the 68W tropical wave.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally
strong precipitation, cover the Caribbean Sea between 63W and
Central America. A surface trough is in the Windward Passage, from
the SE Bahamas.

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in Colombia, southwestward,
beyond SW Panama, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 180 nm on
either side of the monsoon trough.

Strong NE winds have been from Jamaica and Hispaniola southward
to 11N between 70W and 79W. Fresh NE winds have been elsewhere
from 18N southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate easterly winds
have been from 17N northward from the Windward Passage westward.
Fresh NE winds are between 60W and 70W.

The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from Hispaniola and
Jamaica southward between Puerto Rico and 81W. The comparatively
highest sea heights of 8 feet are along 73W/74W in the coastal
waters/offshore waters of Colombia. The sea heights: range from
4 feet to 5 feet elsewhere from 70W eastward; reach 5 feet from
20N northward from 80W westward; reaching 3 feet off the coast of
SW Cuba; 3 feet for the coastal waters of central Honduras; 2 feet
for the eastern coastal waters of Honduras: 4 feet off the coast
of SE Nicaragua.

Ridging over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally
strong winds across mainly the south-central Caribbean through mid
week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of
Honduras tonight. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves along 31N56W, to 30N64W to 25N70W, to the
SE Bahamas near 22N73W, to the Windward Passage. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is to the northwest and north of the surface
trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from the 31N56W of the surface trough eastward.

Strong NE winds are within 180 nm to 210 nm on either side of the
line 31N16W 28N30W 25N41W 18N55W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere
within 300 nm to 420 nm on either side of the line 31N14W 27N30W
24N41W 18N56W 16N60W. Moderate and fresh southerly winds are from
the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward from 42W eastward. Moderate or
slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Sea
heights that range from 7 feet to 10 feet are from 50W eastward,
with smaller areas of ranges from 4 feet to 6 feet. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet between 50W and 70W. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 70W westward.

The subtropical ridge extending along 29N will lift northward
ahead of a surface trough moving westward toward the Bahamas
through the early part of the week. Expect moderate to fresh
easterly winds south of 24N following the trough through Tue.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the late
afternoons and early evenings through Tue.

$$
mt/al
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