[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Aug 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 15N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted
at this time with this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W and S of 20N,
moving W at at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
across the southern portion of the wave affecting portions of
northern Venezuela.

The northern portion of a tropical wave extends across western
Caribbean near 88W and S of 22N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No
significant convection is noted at this time with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 16N17W to
08N42W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N56W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N-16N and E of 32W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean
waters adjacent to Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretching southward from northern Florida to
near the Florida Keys is generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms near southwestern Florida, including the Florida
Keys and Florida Straits. Modest convergent surface winds are
coupling with moderate easterly wind shear aloft to spark
isolated thunderstorms at the north-central Gulf and western Bay
of Campeche. A 1017 mb surface high centered near 27N89W prevails
across the basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft
exist at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate ESE to S winds with 2 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest
of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a thermal trough will move off the Yucatan
Peninsula each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan.
Elsewhere, a ridge over the northern Gulf will support mostly
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through
Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
above for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin.

An upper-level low at the central Caribbean near 15N78W is
causing scattered showers N of 13N between 64W-82W. An easterly
trade-wind pattern persists across the basin. Fresh to strong ENE
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the central basin.
Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are found near the
Cayman Islands and west of Jamaica. Light to gentle monsoonal
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in easterly swell exist near Costa
Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas at 4
to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin, including the Gulf of
Honduras and Windward Passage.

For the forecast, ridging over the western Atlantic will continue
to support fresh to strong winds across mainly the south-central
Caribbean through mid week, to include over the Gulf of Honduras
tonight. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves southwestward from 29N64W to east of the
southeast Bahamas at 22N71W. Scattered moderate convection is
flaring up from 22N to 26N between 67W and 73W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning
for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The subtropical Atlantic Ridge is supplying gentle to moderate E
to SE to S winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft north of 25N between 50W
and the Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail
from 11N to 25N and E of 70W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted 17N to
29N and E of 48W. An area of seas to 9 ft is also noted S of the
monsoon trough and E of 30N. Light to moderate winds and 4-7 ft
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge will continue
lifting northward ahead of a surface trough moving westward toward
the Bahamas through the early part of the week. Expect moderate
to fresh easterly winds south of 24N following the trough through
Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the
late afternoons and early evenings through Tue.

$$
ERA
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