[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Aug 07 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean is along 23W/24W, from 16N southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 16N southward from 27W eastward.
This precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean is along 41W/42WW from 17N southward,
moving westward about 20 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation also is close to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from
21N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to
20 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 13N to
14N between 60W and 61W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 22N southward between 52W and 61W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from
20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. This
wave is moving through an area of upper level cyclonic
wind flow, that is between 70W and 80W. The GFS model
also shows broad 700 mb cyclonic wind flow in much of
the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 20N southward between 60W and 80W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W, from
20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from central Nicaragua northward from 80W westward. The
comparatively stronger precipitation that is from east
central Nicaragua is related to the monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 15N17W, to 14N20W, 13N30W and 11N37W. The
ITCZ continues from 11N37W, to 10N43W and 10N55W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is within 90 nm on either
side of the monsoon trough between 28W and 31W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to
15N between 42W and 51W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 55W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level inverted trough that was in the Yucatan
Peninsula has moved toward the west and the northwest.
An upper level ridge now runs from the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico beyond the Florida Panhandle.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
in the area, mostly on the southeastern side of the
trough.

A surface trough is along 93W/94W, from 17N in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to 22N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 24N southward from 90W westward.

A surface ridge passes through 27N72W in the
Atlantic Ocean, through Lake Okeechobee in
south Florida, toward the middle Texas Gulf coast.

The sea heights are reaching 1 foot in the eastern half
of the Gulf. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet from
from the coastal waters of Louisiana into the west
central sections of the Gulf, and in the coastal waters
of Mexico along 20N. The sea heights are 3 feet elsewhere.
Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow covers the area.

Weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will support
gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during .
Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will
become moderate to fresh by mid-week. A thermal trough
will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night,
producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest
of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information
about the 71W/72W tropical wave, and the 84W tropical wave.

The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet from
Hispaniola and Jamaica southward between 69 and 81W.
The 9 foot sea heights are in the coastal waters of
Colombia between 75W and 76W. The sea heights are
ranging from 2 feet to 3 feet in the Atlantic Ocean
just to the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands.
The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 4 feet
in the Venezuela coastal waters, and off the SE coast
of Nicaragua. The sea heights are 5 feet elsewhere
from 70W eastward. The sea heights are ranging
from 2 feet to 3 feet from 15N northward from 80W
westward. Strong NE winds are within 250 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 72W and 77W. Fresh
NE-to-E winds are elsewhere the Greater Antilles
southward from 66W westward. Moderate easterly winds
are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Moderate or slower
wind speeds are in the rest of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/10N from northern
Colombia beyond the central sections of Panama, and
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered strong is from 06N to 12N between the
border of Colombia and Panama, and 87W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 07/1200 UTC,
are: 0.24 in Bermuda, and 0.18 in St. Thomas in the
Virgin Islands.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south
central Caribbean through Tue, with fresh trade winds
over the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh
trades are expected over the eastern basin, with gentle
to moderate trades are expected in the western basin.
Winds across the Caribbean will diminish slightly by
mid-week with gentle to moderate winds expected to prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
28N northward from 60W westward. A stationary front is
along 35N/36N from 60W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N
northward from 24W westward. A surface ridge is along
34N32W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near
30N49W, to 27N72W, beyond Lake Okeechobee in south
Florida.

Strong NE-to-E winds are from 19N to 21N between 63W and
66W. Fresh NE-to-E winds are: from the monsoon trough/ITCZ
to 20N between 35W and 47W; from 14N to 25N between 47W
and 70W. Fresh southerly winds are from 06N southward
between 29W and 40W. Fresh SW winds are from 28N northward
between 70W and 78W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere.
The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from 15N
to 25N between 40W and 60W. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet, with some isolated 7 foot heights,
elsewhere from 70W eastward. The sea heights are 4 feet
or less from 70W westward.

The subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated
along 28N through much of the week. Expect fresh ESE
trade winds to continue through this evening S of 25N
and E of 75W. Increased swell due to these winds is
expected to subside by tonight. Winds off the N coast
of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong speeds this
afternoon and evening. Starting Tue, these winds will
be mostly at gentle to moderate speeds through early
Thu, then increase slightly to fresh speeds through
Fri night.

$$
mt/ja
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