[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22N from 16N southward,
moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 15N between 19W and 23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 16N southward,
and moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 12N between 40W and 42W. This wave is forecast
to approach the Lesser Antilles around midweek, increasing the
chance of thunderstorms and gusty winds.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 20N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 15N to 21N between 51W and 55W.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from Hispaniola
southward into northwestern Venezuela. It is moving west around 15
kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 19N southward
across central Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving west
around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring along the southern coast of Cuba and nearby waters.
Isolated thunderstorms are present farther west in the Gulf of
Honduras, and adjacent to the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica and
Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near 18N16W to 17N30W to 16N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is flaring up south of the monsoon trough from
07N to 14N between 24W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 13N between 41W and 48W. No ITCZ is present
based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the central and eastern Bay of Campeche.
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1017 mb high in
the north-central Gulf extending south of Tampico, Mexico is
dominating much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1
to 2 ft exist across the northeastern and east-central Gulf.
Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Florida
Straits.

For the forecast, the 1017 mb high and related ridge will support
gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return
flow across the far western Gulf will become moderate to fresh by
mid- week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula
each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of
the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on
convection in the Caribbean basin.

A tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge to the north near 27N
and Colombian Low over northwestern Colombia continues to cause
fresh to strong ENE to E winds in the south-central basin. Seas
range 9 to 9 ft. Mainly fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted across the north- central basin. Gentle NE to E winds and
seas at 1 to 3 ft persist at the northwestern basin, including the
Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle NW to N winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft are present just north of Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to
fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the
basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail over the
south- central Caribbean through Tue, with fresh trade winds over
the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades are
expected over the eastern basin, with gentle to moderate trades
are expected in the western basin. Winds across the Caribbean will
diminish slightly by mid-week with gentle to moderate winds
expected to prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds are generating scattered moderate
convection southwest and south of Bermuda, north of 26N between
64W and 74W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections at the beginning for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
present north of 26N between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coast. In
the central Atlantic, a large dome of 1026 mb high near 30N50W is
supporting light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas north of 26N
between 23W and 60W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate N
to NNE trades and 3 to 6 ft seas in moderately north swell exist
north of 18N between the Africa coast and 23W. Across the tropical
Atlantic between the southeast Bahamas/Lesser Antilles and 35W,
moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are
visible from 12N to 26N. Between 35W and the Cabo Verde Islands,
gentle to moderate ENE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are found from
13N to 26N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and light to gentle
monsoonal westerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the 1027 mb high and associated
subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated along 28N
through much of the week. Expect fresh ESE trade winds to continue
through this evening, S of 25N and E of 75W. These winds will are
bringing increased swell to the area, which will subside by
tonight. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally
strong speeds during the afternoons and evening today. By Tue,
winds will be mostly gentle to moderate through midweek.

$$
AReinhart
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