[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300851
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the
Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong to near-gale
force winds are over the eastern Gulf, with frequent gusts to gale
force within 60 nm of the coast from Louisiana to central Florida.
The front will shift SE of the Gulf today, with winds diminishing
through the day.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The same cold front described above
in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move off the US east coast
today. Strong to gale-force southerly winds have developed across
the central and NE Florida offshore waters ahead of the front.
Strong to gale- force southerly winds will prevail ahead of the
front to the N of 28N and W of 70W, as well as in the coastal
waters S of 28N, through early this evening.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on these warnings.

Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of
Honduras is restricting visibilities to 3 nm or less.
Observations from Roatan, La Ceiba, and Tela have all been
reporting low visibilities. Mariners are urged to exercise
caution if traversing this area. The smoke has been transported
over the waters by fresh to strong SE winds. These conditions are
expected to continue through this morning.

Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more
information.

Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and
central America in April and early May, during the regions
annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed
with the haze creates a smoky atmosphere. During this time of the
year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners,
especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and
the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to
01N22W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the
equator to 04N between 16W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see
the Special Features section above for more information.

A strong cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to the
Yucatan peninsula. Strong to near-gale force winds are noted over
the NE Gulf, with frequent gusts to gale force within 60 nm of the
coast from Louisiana to central Florida. Fresh to strong winds
are elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Seas range from 8-13 ft over
much of the waters west of the front, and 6-8 ft east of the
front.

For the forecast, the cold front will push east of the basin
today. Strong to near gale- force winds in the eastern Gulf will
diminish today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front,
and become centered over the eastern Gulf Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense
Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong winds are observed in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh
to locally strong winds are off the coast of Colombia and
Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
4-6 ft range over the NW Caribbean as well as off the coast of
Colombia and Venezuela, and 3-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds offshore eastern
Honduras will continue through early today and transport dense
smoke from agricultural fires across the NW Caribbean waters. A
cold front will enter the NW Caribbean today, and reach from
central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon, where it
will stall and dissipate by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds
are expected offshore of Colombia Mon night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Western Atlantic. Please see
the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front extends from 31N29W to 23N50W. Moderate to locally
fresh winds are in the vicinity of the front, with seas in the
8-12 ft range in NW to N swell. A surface ridge extends SW from
high pressure near 28N55W to the southern Bahamas. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
over the SE United States is supporting strong to gale force
winds, and seas 8 ft and building, off the coast of Florida.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere west of 70W. Light to gentle
winds cover the remainder of the waters north of 16N. South of
16N, mainly moderate trade winds prevail. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, a strong cold front is forecast to
move off the US East Coast today. Strong to gale- force southerly
winds will prevail ahead of the front to the N of 28N and W of
70W, as well as in the coastal waters S of 28N, through early this
evening. The front will then gradually weaken and slow early this
week. Another, weaker front may move across the northern waters
mid- week.

$$
AL
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