[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Apr 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong cold
front passes through SW Alabama/the Florida Panhandle,
to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm of the
Florida west coast from 25N to 27N. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from the cold front
eastward. Gale-force winds, sometimes in gusts, are
forecast in the coastal waters from Louisiana to the
waters that are off west central Florida. The sea
heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet, from the
east central Gulf, into the west central Gulf,
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
These conditions will continue across most of
the Gulf through Sunday afternoon.

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: The same cold
front that is moving through the Gulf of Mexico is
forecast to move off the USA east coast late tonight/
early on Sunday morning. Gale-force southerly winds
have developed in the NE Florida offshore waters, to
the east of the cold front. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the west
of the line that passes through 31N72W, to the central
Bahamas. Wind gusts to gale-force are likely also.
The front and the winds and the precipitation are
forecast to continue to move eastward through Sunday
evening.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf
of Honduras is restricting the visibilities to 3 nm
or less. The surface observations from Roatan, La Ceiba,
and Tela have been reporting low visibilities during the
day, sometimes in the category of LIFR. Mariners are
urged to exercise caution if they are traversing this
area. The smoke has been pushed into the waters by fresh
to strong SE winds. These conditions are expected to
continue through the weekend.

Please, read the Offshore Waters Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html, for more
information.

N.B. : Fires in southern Mexico and in central America
burn off and on, in April and early May, during the
region's annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke.
The smoke mixes with the haze, and it creates a smoky
atmosphere. We see that dense smoke has the potential to
affect mariners, especially in the NW Caribbean,
including in the Gulf of Honduras and in the Gulf of
Mexico, during this time of the year.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N17W, to 04N20W 02N21W, to the Equator along 29W,
to 01N34W, to the Equator along 40W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Gale-Force Wind Warning, that was issued for
parts of the Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front has
been moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Strong
precipitation has been associated with the cold front
during the last 24 hours or so.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet, from the
east central Gulf, into the west central Gulf, into the
SW corner of the area.

A strong cold front from the the Florida panhandle to
the Yucatan peninsula will move eastward, pushing east
of the basin by the end of the weekend. An intense
area of thunderstorms with locally higher winds and
seas will precede the front. Strong to gale-force
NW winds are expected immediately behind the front
through around sunset, with frequent gusts to gale-
force within 60 nm of the coast from Louisiana to
Central Florida. High pres will build in the wake
of the front, and become centered over the eastern
Gulf Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more
information about Dense Smoke, in the Gulf of Honduras.

The sea heights generally range from 3 feet to 4 feet.
Some exceptions are: 5 feet off the coast of central
Colombia and central Venezuela; 2 feet off the coast
of Honduras. Broad low pressure in over NW Colombia
is enhancing the trade wind flow in the south central
Caribbean Sea, where fresh to locally strong winds
are common. A relatively weak surface pressure gradient
has been supporting gentle to moderate trades elsewhere
in the SW, the central, and in the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are in the NW
corner, in advance of the approaching cold front that
currently is in the Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh to strong SE to S winds offshore eastern
Honduras will continue through early Sun and transport dense
smoke from agricultural fires across the NW Caribbean waters.
A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sun morning, and
reach from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras
on Mon, where it will stall and dissipate by Tue. Fresh to
locally strong winds are expected offshore of Colombia tonight,
returning Mon night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Gale-Force Wind Warning, that was issued for
parts of the Western Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge covers much of the rest of the subtropical
Atlantic Ocean from 71W eastward. This is supporting mainly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds between the central Bahamas and
55W. In the central Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends from
31N36W to 22N52W with some showers ahead of it and long period
swell supporting seas of 8 to 14 ft N of 26N between 30W and 54W.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are between the coast
of NW Africa and both the Cape Verde Islands and the Canary
Islands.

High pres along 25N will linger through tonight
ahead of a strong cold front. The front is forecast to move off
the US East Coast Sun night through Mon. Strong to gale- force
southerly winds will prevail ahead of the front to the N of 28N
and W of 70W, as well as in the coastal waters S of 28N, through
early Sun evening. The front will then gradually weaken and slow
early next week. Another, weaker front may move across the
northern waters mid- week.

$$
mt/al
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