[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has entered the
northwestern Gulf this morning, extending from 29N92W to 25N98W.
The front will continue to move eastward through early next week.
Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the
front across the Mexican offshore waters today, reaching the
Veracruz area this afternoon. Seas are forecast to build up to 12
ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front. These
conditions will continue through Sun afternoon.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The same cold front described above is
forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon. Strong southerly
winds will develop early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N
and W of 75W, increasing to gale-force N of 29N during the day on
Sun. Winds will decrease below gale force late Sun.

Gulf of Mexico Ashfall Advisory: The Popocatepetl volcano in
Mexico is currently in a state of unrest and is producing
volcanic ash extending into portions of the SW Gulf S of 21N and W
of 95W. Mariners should exercise caution if transversing this
area.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on these warnings.

Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of
Honduras is restricting visibilities to 3 nm or less.
Observations from Roatan, La Ceiba, and Tela have all been
reporting low visibilities over the past day. Mariners are urged
to exercise caution if traversing this area. The smoke has been
transported over the waters by fresh to strong SE winds. These
conditions are expected to continue through the weekend.

Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more
information.

Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and
central America in April and early May, during the regions
annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed
with the haze to create a smoky atmosphere. During this time of
the year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners,
especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras
and the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 16N17W to
13N23W. Latest scatterometer data depicts the ITCZ beginning near
04N18W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning and an Ashfall Advisory are in effect for the Gulf
of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for more
information.

Ahead of the cold front, a squall line is analyzed from 28N89W to
23N96W. Fresh to strong SE winds are noted in scatterometer data
ahead of the front and squall line over the SE Gulf waters. Seas
of 8-10 ft prevail behind the front, while 4-8 ft seas are noted
ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the strong cold front will continue to move
eastward through early next week. An intense area of thunderstorms
with locally higher winds and seas will precede the front. Strong
to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front
through the next 24-30 hours. Hazy conditions generated by
agricultural fires in Mexico will linger across the central Gulf
and Bay of Campeche today. High pressure centered over the eastern
Gulf will dominate the basin Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense
Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, including
the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the NW Caribbean as
well as off the coast of Colombia. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the NW
Caribbean will continue through early Sun and transport dense
smoke from agricultural fires across the Gulf of Honduras. A cold
front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun morning, and reach
from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon,
where it will stall and dissipate by Tue. Fresh to locally strong
winds are expected offshore of Colombia tonight, returning Mon
night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Western Atlantic. Please see
the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front extends from 31N40W to 24N53W. Scattered showers are
noted in the vicinity of the front. Fresh to strong winds are on
either side of the front, with seas of 8-12 ft. High pressure is
centered over NE Atlantic near 36N16W, with ridging extends
westward across the discussion waters. Light to gentle winds are
in the vicinity of the high center and surface ridge. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pres over the central Atlantic
will gradually build westward along 26N/27N through the weekend.
Deepening low pres northeast of Bermuda will generate northerly
swell north of 28N and east of 60W through this afternoon. A
strong cold front is forecast to move off the US East Coast on
Mon, with strong southerly winds developing early Sun ahead of the
front to the N of 25N and W of 75W, increasing to gale-force N of
29N during the day on Sun. The front will then gradually weaken
and slow early next week.

$$
ERA
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