[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290909
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf early this morning, then move eastward through
early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected
immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters
today, reaching the Veracruz area this afternoon. Fresh to strong
southerly winds and strong thunderstorms are forecast over the
eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up to
12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The same cold front is forecast to
move off the US east coast on Mon. Strong southerly winds will
develop early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of
75W, increasing to gale-force N of 29N during the day on Sun.
Winds will decrease below gale force late Sun.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on these warnings.

Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of
Honduras is restricting visibilities to 3 nm or less.
Observations from Roatan, La Cieba, and Tela have all been
reporting low visibilities over the past day. Mariners are urged
to exercise caution if traversing the Gulf of Honduras. The smoke
has been transported over the waters by fresh to strong SE winds.
Dense smoke and reduced visibilities are expected to continue
through the weekend.

Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more
information.

Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and
central America in April and early May, during the regions
annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed
with the haze to create a smoky atmosphere. During this time of
the year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners,
especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras
and the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 03S39W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator to 05N
between 09W and 21W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from the equator to 05N between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see
the Special Features section for more information.

Surface troughing prevails across the Gulf waters, extending from
the NE Gulf to low pres near 22N94W. A cold front is approaching
the Texas coast. Active convection is noted in the vicinity of the
trough over the NE Gulf, with a squall line ahead of the front
over the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Yucatan
Channel as well as north of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in
the area of fresh winds, and 3-5 ft over much of the remainder of
the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the northwestern
Gulf early this morning, then move eastward through early next
week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately
behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters today,
reaching the Veracruz area this afternoon. Fresh to strong
southerly winds and strong thunderstorms are forecast over the
eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions generated by
agricultural fires in Mexico will linger across the central Gulf
and Bay of Campeche this morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense
Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh t strong winds are found over the NW Caribbean, with fresh
to locally strong winds off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft
range over the NW Caribbean as well as off the coast of Colombia.
Seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the NW
Caribbean will continue through early Sun and transport dense
smoke from agricultural fires across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh
to locally strong winds are also expected offshore of Colombia
most of this week. High pressure will build across the western
Atlantic tonight through Tue, leading to fresh to locally strong
trade winds across the southeast and south central Caribbean. A
cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun morning, and
reach from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on
Mon, where it will stall and dissipate by Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic Ocean. Please see
the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front extends from 31N43W to 27N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of the front. Fresh to strong
winds are on either side of the front, with seas of 8-10 ft. High
pressure is centered near 22N45W, with ridging extends westward
across the discussion waters. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center and surface ridge. Gentle to moderate
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central
Atlantic will gradually build westward along 27N through the
weekend. Deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will generate
large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W through today.
A strong cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on
Mon, with strong southerly winds developing early Sun ahead of the
front to the N of 25N and W of 75W, increasing to gale-force N of
29N during the day on Sun.

$$
AL
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