[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0955 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W
to 02N27W to 01N37W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
observed south of 07N and between Africa and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure between the SE United States and Bermuda support
moderate to fresh SE winds over most of the Gulf of Mexico, with
the strongest winds in the southwestern portion of the basin. Seas
are 5-8 ft west of 90W and 3-6 ft in the rest of the Gulf. A
recent altimeter satellite pass captured seas to 8 ft near 24N95W. There
may be some limitation to visibility over the southwest Gulf due
to smoke and haze from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and
Central America.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge positioned between the SE
United States and Bermuda and lower pressures over Mexico will
continue to force moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the
Gulf of Mexico through Fri. The diurnal trough forming over the
Yucatan will promote strong E winds over E Bay of Campeche tonight.
Agricultural and seasonal fires over Mexico and Central America
result in smoke and haze over the the SW Gulf and the Bay
Campeche. Mariners may experience reduced visibility in these
waters. Winds will diminish across the Gulf Fri ahead of a cold
front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night. N to NE
winds behind the front should be moderate to fresh on Sat. By Sun
morning, the dissipating front will extend from SW Florida to near
the Texas-Mexico border. Looking ahead, as a surface ridge builds
to the north of the Gulf, fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are
expected on Sun and Mon over most of the western and central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite-derived winds from a few hours ago captured fresh to
strong trades over the south-central and southeast Caribbean Sea,
with the strongest winds offshore NW Colombia. Seas in these
waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the
central and eastern Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in
the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure system positioned north of the
Caribbean will weaken over the next couple of days. This will
allow the fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central
Caribbean and fresh E trades over the Gulf of Honduras to diminish
by Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas will be quiescent through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from near 31N62W
southwestward to 28N76W. Divergence aloft is producing some
showers near this frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh NE winds
and 3-5 ft seas are noted west of the trough. Farther east, the
waters are dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure center near
29N50W, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate
to fresh easterly trade winds and 4-6 ft seas are evident south
of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front is forecast
to dissipate later today. A surface trough is likely to develop
by Fri night and persist through Sun east of the Bahamas. The
trough should strengthen trades between Bermuda and the Bahamas on
Sat and Sun, allowing for fresh to strong speeds and building
seas peaking near 9 ft, before weakening on Mon. A weak cold front
should move off the coast of NE Florida Sat night, but dissipate
north of the Bahamas by Mon. Finally, moderate N swell is
anticipated to impact the N waters east of 60W beginning on Sat.

$$
DELGADO
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