[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200453
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 07N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N18W to 02N25W to 02N36W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is evident from 00N to 06N between 10W and
25W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 06N
between 25W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends over the northern Gulf from high
pressure offshore the Mid-Atlantic states to the Texas coast.
Moderate to fresh SE winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are over
the western Gulf, west of 90W and offshore the NW Yucatan
Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2
to 4 ft combined seas over the eastern Gulf. There may be some
limitation to visibility over the southwest Gulf due to smoke
and haze from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and
Central America. Mariners may experience reduced visibility in
these waters.

For the forecast, weak high pressure off the SE United States
combined with surface troughing over Mexico will continue to
force moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the Gulf of
Mexico through Fri. The diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan
will promote strong E winds over the SW Gulf tonight and Thu
night. Winds will diminish across the Gulf Fri ahead of a cold
front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night. N to NE
winds behind the front should be moderate to fresh on Sat. By Sun
morning, the dissipating front will extend from SW Florida to near
the Texas- Mexico border. Looking ahead, as a surface ridge
builds to the north of the Gulf, fresh to strong E to SE to E
winds are expected on Sun and Mon over most of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent satellite scatterometer pass observed fresh to strong
trades over the south-central and southeast Caribbean, with the
strongest winds offshore Colombia between high pressure over the
Carolinas and troughing across central Colombia. Seas range from
5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the
central and eastern Caribbean with 5 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to
moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft combined seas are noted
elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean
will weaken over the next couple of days. This will allow the
fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean and
fresh E trades over the Gulf of Honduras to diminish by Fri.
Elsewhere, winds and seas will be quiescent through early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends west-southwestward from a 1017
mb low pres system near 30N65W to 27N74W. An elongated surface
trough extends SE from the low to NE Cuba. An upper level trough
continues to support broken to overcast clouds with scattered
showers and thunderstorms out ahead of this system from 23N to
31N between 55W and 65W. Scattered showers are also observed
over the S Bahamas and NE Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4
to 6 ft combined seas are noted west of the trough. Farther
east, the waters are dominated by a 1024 mb high pressure center
near 29N48W, which is keeping quiet conditions in place.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas south
of 20N, and mostly light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft combined
seas north of 20N east of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front and surface
trough are expected to weaken and dissipate Friday. Another
surface trough is likely to form by Fri night and persist
through Sun east of the Bahamas. The trough should strengthen
trades between Bermuda and the Bahamas on Sat and Sun before
weakening on Mon. A weak cold front should move off the coast of
NE Florida Sat night, but dissipate north of the Bahamas by Mon.
Finally, moderate N swell is anticipated to impact the N waters
east of 60W beginning on Sat.

$$
Mora
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