[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161633
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 04N14W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N14W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of 05N and west of 14W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is draped across the northeast Gulf as of 15Z from
Pascagoula, Mississippi to just north of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh
to strong N to NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted behind
the front. Ahead of the front, an outflow boundary is moving
quickly southeastward over the central Gulf waters and is
producing numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from
22N northward between 85W to 94W. Mariners are recommended to
use caution if navigating near the aforementioned storms and
outflow boundary. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft are noted off northern Yucatan and over the eastern Bay
of Campeche waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, gusty winds and locally rough seas are likely
today near numerous showers and thunderstorms active ahead of
the front over the north- central Gulf. The abovementioned front
will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to Tampico, Mexico early Mon,
before stalling and dissipating from the Straits of Florida to the
northeast Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. Fresh to strong N to
NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over much of
the western and central Gulf tonight into early Mon. Looking ahead,
fresh to locally strong SE winds are likely over the western Gulf
Tue night into Wed, diminishing through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass reveals that moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds prevail in the south-central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6
to 9 ft. Moderate easterly winds are evident in the
north-central and eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 4 to 6
ft. Light to gentle E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, ridging across the western Atlantic will sustain a
moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean
through today, except for fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean
off Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will diminish across
the basin into mid week as the ridge shifts east ahead of a
weakening cold front approaching the Yucatan Channel. Looking ahead,
winds may increase off Colombia by Wed night as the ridge builds
north of the region following the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A remnant trough from a stationary front that has dissipated
extends from 31N37W to 25N50W. Latest scatterometer satellite
data depicts moderate NE to E winds behind the aforementioned
boundary and also north of Puerto Rico and Leeward Islands to
26N. Seas in these waters are 4 to 7 ft. The remainder of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge
promoting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, a cold front will move offshore of northeast
Florida tonight, continue moving slowly to the southeast and reach
from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Tue, before stalling
and dissipating through mid week. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front between Bermuda and northeast Florida through mid
week.

$$
Nepaul
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net