[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 04N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 06N and west of 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary is moving quickly southeastward over the SE
Gulf waters. Satellite-derived wind data depicts fresh to strong
winds behind the outflow boundary. Mariners are recommended to use
caution if navigating near the aforementioned storms and outflow
boundary. Another area of showers and thunderstorms is affecting
SE Texas and western Louisiana, as well as the Gulf waters N of
28N and W of 89W associated with a cold front that extends from
30N93W to 27N97W. Fresh winds are noted NW of the front with seas
to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 3-5 ft are
noted off northern Yucatan and over the eastern Bay of Campeche
waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Tampa Bay,
Florida to Poza Rica, Mexico early Mon, before stalling and
dissipating from the Straits of Florida to the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula through mid week. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and
building seas are likely behind the front over much of the western
and central Gulf Sun into early Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to
strong easterly trade winds prevail in the south-central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-9
ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are evident in the north-
central and eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to
gentle E-SE winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in
the rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, ridging across the western Atlantic will sustain a
moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central
Caribbean through today, except for fresh to strong winds
overnight in the south-central Caribbean off Colombia and the
Gulf of Honduras. Winds will diminish across the basin into mid
week as the ridge shifts east ahead of a weakening cold front
approaching the Yucatan Channel. Looking ahead, winds may
increase again off Colombia by Wed night as the ridge builds
north of the region following the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 25N47W and continues
southwestward as a shear line to 20N69W. Latest scatterometer
satellite data depicts moderate to fresh NE-E winds behind the
aforementioned frontal boundaries and also north of Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba to 26N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Gusty winds
and rough seas are expected across the W Atlantic mainly N of the
Bahamas within the scattered moderate convection present in this
area. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge promoting moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas.

For the forecast, a cold front will move offshore of northeast
Florida tonight and continue moving slowly to the southeast,
reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Tue,
before stalling and dissipating through mid week. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front between Bermuda and northeast
Florida through mid week.

$$
ERA
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