[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N19W to 02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted S of 06N between 20W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights
range from 2 to 4 ft. Moderate wind speeds are in the western
half of the area. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are in the
eastern half of the area. Scattered moderate convection prevails
across the NW Gulf waters N of 27N and W of 93W.

Some surface observations along the coast of Mexico, for the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, show visibilities that range from
3 miles to 5 miles with haze, from inland agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the ridge will shift east today ahead of a cold
front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf tonight. The
front will move southeastward across much of the Gulf and reach
from Fort Myers, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Sun night. Fresh to
strong N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the
front over much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early
Mon. Well in advance of the front, there is a possibility of some
severe thunderstorm squalls with gusty winds over portions of the
north-central and NE Gulf today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong NE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, with
seas ranging from 8-10 ft. The seas range from 4 to 6 ft in the
rest of the central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere
within 360 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia from 70W
westward. Moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the central
sections of the Caribbean, and in the SW sections. Moderate to
fresh NE winds, and seas that range from 3 to 5 ft are in the
eastern portion of the basin. Fresh to strong SE winds prevail
across the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 7 ft. Gentle winds are
elsewhere from Jamaica northwestward. The sea heights range from 2
to 4 ft in the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge located just north of the
Caribbean will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the
eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except for
fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to near
gale force winds will persist through the weekend within 60 nm of
the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. Looking ahead, winds should
diminish across the basin early next week as a weakening cold
front approaches the Yucatan Channel.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N41W to 21N60W  then becomes a
surface trough continues to 31N76W. Seas range mostly from 4 to
6 ft from the front eastward. Some areas of 7 ft seas are within
700 nm N of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 30N62W. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic wind speeds are around the high pressure center, from
the frontal boundary northwestward. Gentle winds are from 27N
northward between the front and 60W. Seas range from 6 to 8 ft
from 50W eastward from the front northward. The seas range from 4
to 6 ft elsewhere from the frontal boundary northward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure centered
near 39N16W to 31N28W to 26N25W to 18N45W. The seas range from 7
to 10 ft from 28N northward from 15W eastward. Strong NE winds are
from Africa to the Canary Islands from 20W eastward. Mostly fresh
to some strong NE winds are elsewhere from 23N northward from 24W
eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 13N southward
between 34W and 57W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of the
front as it dissipates through today. The next cold front is
expected to move offshore of northern Florida Sun night or early
Mon morning enhancing winds and seas across the western Atlantic
through Tue.

$$
ERA
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