[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, to
03N35W and to 02N44W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 23W and 29W,
and within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 37W and 42W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 07N
between 43W and 49W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the remainder of the area that is from 11N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad and weak surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico.
The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. Moderate wind speeds
are in the western half of the area. Gentle to moderate wind
speeds are in the eastern half of the area. Multilayered clouds
are in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, moving toward the
ENE. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is in the coastal waters from Louisiana to Mexico.

Some surface observations along the coast of Mexico, for the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, show visibilities that range from
3 miles to 5 miles with haze, from inland agricultural fires.

Weak ridging extends from southwest Florida to southeast
Louisiana. The ridge will shift east Sat ahead of a cold front
that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Sat night. The front
will move southeastward across much of the Gulf and reach from
Fort Myers, Florida to Tampico, Mexico Sun night. Fresh to strong
N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over
much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. Well in
advance of the front, there is a possibility of some severe
thunderstorm squalls with gusty winds over portions of the
north central and NE Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong NE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia. The
sea heights range from 6 feet to 10 feet in the southern half of
the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet in the rest of the central sections. Fresh
NE winds are elsewhere within 360 nm of the coasts of Venezuela
and Colombia from 70W westward. Moderate NE winds are in the
remainder of the central sections of the Caribbean Sea, and in the
SW sections. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and sea heights that
range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the eastern one-third of the
area. Fresh to strong SE winds were from 20N southward from 84W
westward in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle winds are
elsewhere from Jamaica northwestward. The sea heights range from
2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The Atlantic ridge located just north of the Caribbean will
sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and
central Caribbean through the weekend, except for fresh to strong
in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to near gale force winds
will persist through the weekend within 60 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight and Sat night. Looking ahead, winds should
diminish across the basin early next week as a weakening cold
front approaches the Yucatan Channel.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N40W to 25N50W
to 21N57W. The front is stationary from 21N57W to 20N65W and
22N70W. The front is dissipating stationary from 22N70W beyond
31N75W. A surface trough is about 300 nm to the SE of the cold
front. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either
side of the frontal boundary. Other isolated moderate is about
900 nm to the southeast of the cold front. The sea heights range
mostly from 4 feet to 6 feet from the cold front eastward and
southeastward. Some areas of 7 foot sea heights are within 700 nm
to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands, and within 850 nm to the
WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 30N63W. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic wind speeds are around the high pressure center, from
the frontal boundary northwestward. Gentle winds are from 27N
northward between the cold front and 62W. The sea heights range
from 6 feet to 8 feet from 53W eastward from the front northward.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from the
frontal boundary northward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to
6 feet from the Bahamas northward. The sea heights range from
2 feet to 4 feet from the Bahamas southward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that
is near 38N17W, through 31N28W 26N25W, to 18N45W. The sea heights
range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 25N northward from 20W eastward.
Strong NE winds are from Africa to the Canary Islands from 20W
eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are elsewhere from
23N northward from 24W eastward. the Azores. Mostly fresh NE winds
are from 13N southward between 34W and 57W. Moderate NE winds
are to the southeast of the line that passes through 31N24W
28N31W 22N42W 19N54W. Gentle winds are between the
31N24W-to-19N54W line and the 31N40W-to-21N57W cold front.

A stationary front extends from 22N55W to 21N67W then becomes
weak to 31N75W. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of the
front as it dissipates through the Sat. The next cold front is
expected to move offshore of northern Florida Sun night or early
Mon morning enhancing winds and seas across the western Atlantic
through Tue.

$$
mt/era
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