[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 08N13W to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N21W to
02N30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N
between 10W and 16W and from 00N to 04N between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is noted in the far SE Gulf of Mexico
extending from the Florida Straits. Another surface trough has
formed S of Louisiana. To the NE of the troughs, fresh to strong
E winds dominate in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere in the Gulf, mainly
gentle to moderate NE winds prevail. Seas in the NE Gulf are 5 to
8 ft, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds with higher seas
to its north will persist across the northeastern Gulf, and near
the Florida Keys through tonight. A low pressure system is
expected to form near the central Gulf along the surface trough
tonight, then become better organized and lift northward through
Thu. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected at the
north-central Gulf, and to persist across the northeastern Gulf
through Thu morning. Marine conditions at both locations will
improve by Thu afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A fairly dry weather pattern dominates the Caribbean, and a weak
high pressure regime sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and seas of 3-6 ft in the south-central and SE Caribbean.
Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge northeast of Puerto Rico near 20N
will sustain a trade-wind regime across the entire basin through
the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue at
the south-central basin, north of Colombia for the rest of this
week, and begin at the Gulf of Honduras by Fri. Moderate
northerly swell related to a frontal boundary currently across
the western Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern
basin on Wed, and then spread across the eastern Caribbean
through Thu before dissipating by the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A nearly stationary front extends from 31N63W to 24N80W. This
front will drift SE over the next few days, with strong to near
gale force NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft spreading across waters
N of 25W and W of 68W through tonight. The front is expected to
stall again along 23N late this week. A pre-frontal trough is
analyzed north of Hispaniola. The combination of the trough and
front is supporting scattered moderate convection north of 24N and
between 65W and 80W. Fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft
are evident ahead of the frontal boundary. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the western
tropical Atlantic.

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted in
the eastern Atlantic north of 22N and east of 40W, with the
strongest winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. These
winds are generating 8-9 ft seas in the area. In the rest of the
basin, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to locally near-gale force NE
to ENE winds north of the stationary front will prevail north of
25N and west of 68W through tonight, then become fresh to strong
on Wed. Rough seas north of 25N produced by large NE swell should
gradually subside through Wed. The front will begin to move E
again later Wed and continue as a cold front through Fri. Winds
and seas should subside further Thu and Fri.

$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net