[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: A stationary front extends from 31N64W to
24N80W. The front will sink southeastward over the next few days,
with strong to near-gale NE winds and high seas spreading across
the waters north of 25N and west of 68W through tonight. Very
rough seas produced by large NE swell behind the front north of
26N should gradually subside through this evening. The front is
expected to stall again along 23N by the middle of the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 08N13W to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N21W to
02N30W. Surface troughs are analyzed along 37W, 46W, and 49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N and east of
49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the tail end of a stationary front
in the Florida Straits to 24N92W. The remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico is dominated by a broad high pressure system over the
eastern United States. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the
NE Gulf, mainly north of 25N and east of 86W. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds with higher seas
to its north will persist across the northeastern Gulf, and near
the Florida Keys through today. A low pressure system is expected
to develop across the northern gulf tonight, then become better
organized and lift northward through Thu. Fresh to strong winds
and rough seas are expected at the north-central Gulf, and to
persist across the northeastern Gulf through Thu morning. Marine
conditions at both locations will improve by Thu afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A fairly dry weather pattern dominates the Caribbean, only
allowing for pockets of shallow moisture traveling with the trades
to produce light, isolated showers. A weak high pressure regime
sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft
in the south-central and SE Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge northeast of Puerto Rico
near 20N will sustain a trade-wind regime across the entire basin
through the end of the week. Fresh to strong easterly trades will
continue at the south-central basin, north of Colombia most of the
week, and begin at the Gulf of Honduras by Fri. Moderate
northerly swell related to a frontal boundary currently across the
western Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern
basin on Wed and spread across the eastern Caribbean through the
week and weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the
Significant Swell Event in the W Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N64W to 24N80W. A pre-frontal
trough is analyzed north of Hispaniola. The combination of these
systems is supporting scattered showers north of 24N and between
65W and 80W. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 6-10 ft
are evident ahead of the frontal boundary. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the western
tropical Atlantic.

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the
eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 46W, with the strongest
winds occurring north of 24N and east of 25W. These winds are
generating 8-9 ft seas in the area. In the rest of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near-gale force NE to ENE
winds behind the front will prevail north of 25N and west of 68W
through tonight. Very rough seas produced by large NE swell behind
the front north of 26N should gradually subside through this
evening. The front will continue slowly moving E while weakening
through Fri. In response, both winds and seas should subside.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net