[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2305 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A strong
cold front is expected to move offshore of the SE U.S. this
evening and sink across the waters of NE Florida tonight through
early Sun. The front will then move SE across NW portions,
reaching from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun night, and from
31N62W to S Florida by Mon evening. A large area of strong to
gale-force N to NE winds, with storm- force winds just N of 31N,
and significant NE swell, will build into the area behind the
front, spreading across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue.
These high seas, and strong to gale-force winds, will extend
westward, all the way to the east coast of Florida from Sunday
afternoon through Monday night. The Ocean Prediction Center has
issued a storm-force wind warning for the conditions that will be
happening to the north of 31N during this event. The sea heights
are expected to reach 20 feet near 31N75W on Sunday night. The NE
swell will continue to produce sea heights of 12 feet and greater
through Tuesday evening. The front is expected to stall along
24N/25N by the middle of next week

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W and continues to 03N21W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 01S33W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed south of 08N and east of 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast,
extending southwestward from the Louisiana coast to a 1016 mb low
pressure near 27N93W and southward to the coast of Veracruz near
18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is present in the northern
Gulf waters ahead of the frontal boundary, especially north of
27N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are found west of the
stationary front, mainly south of 27N. Seas in these waters are
6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, stationary front lingers from the Florida Panhandle
across SE Louisiana to weak low pres near 26.5N93.5W to the
western Bay of Campeche near 18.5N95W. The front will move slowly
eastward over the western half of the Gulf through Sun. Fresh to
locally strong northerly winds are expected off Veracruz through
this evening. Another low pres system, expected to develop
offshore of the SE coast of United States tonight, will drag the
cold front southward across the NE Gulf and over Florida on Sun.
Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected behind the front in
the N-central and NE Gulf through mid-week. Low pres will develop
along the remnants of the front in the N central Gulf Tue, deepen
through Wed night, then lift northward and inland on Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers are seen on satellite imagery within 60 nm of the
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica in the SW Caribbean Sea. A fairly
dry weather pattern dominates the remainder of the basin,
suppressing the development of deep convection. The pressure
gradient between the 1024 mb high pressure system near Bermuda and
lower pressures in northern South America sustains moderate to
fresh easterly winds in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.
Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the
Caribbean.

For the forecast, broad inverted trough from near 16N72W across
central Hispaniola and N-NE into the Atlantic will shift W and
into the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba while dissipating through
Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build modestly across the
basin behind the trough and allow for fresh to strong winds in the
S-central Caribbean to pulse at night through the next several
days. Winds and seas in the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlc
E of the trough will gradually diminish through Sun night. Weak
high pressure will then prevail N of the area Mon through Wed
ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the NW
Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the SW Atlantic.

A broad upper level cyclonic wind flow continues to affect the
waters north of the Greater Antilles. A surface trough extends
from 29N68W to Hispaniola and scattered moderate convection is
noted east of the boundary to 60W.The pressure
gradient between the trough, the deep tropics and a 1024 mb high
pressure system near Bermuda support fresh to strong easterly
winds south of 28N and between 60W and 70W. Seas in these waters
are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent west of the surface trough in the western tropical Atlantic.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N21W to 28N30W and
continues southwestward as a surface trough to 25N45W. No deep
convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are evident north of the cold front and surface
trough. Seas are 7-10 ft in the waters described, with the highest
seas occurring near 30N25W. The pressure gradient between the
broad subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N and between
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Wave heights in the area described
are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, broad inverted trough accompanied by active weather
extends from near 29N69W to 26N72W then central Hispaniola, and
will continue to shift W to the central Bahamas through Sun night
while weakening. Atlantic high pres is drapped across the waters
N of the trough, and is producing fresh winds and seas to 10 ft E
of the trough. Winds and seas across the region will gradually
diminish through late Sun as the high pres weakens.

$$
DELGADO
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