[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081812
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 08 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING AND
LARGE NE SWELL EVENT:

A strong cold front is expected to move offshore of the
SE U.S.A. and NE Florida, from today through Sunday.
The strong cold front will move southeastward. The front
will reach from near Bermuda to central Florida on Sunday
evening, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Monday evening.
A large area of strong to gale-force N to NE winds, and
very large seas, will build behind the front by Sunday
evening. The large seas will spread across the waters
that are from 26N northward from 65W westward by Tuesday.
These high seas, and strong to gale-force winds, will
extend westward, all the way to the east coast of Florida
from Sunday afternoon through Monday night. The Ocean
Prediction Center has issued a storm-force wind warning
for the conditions that will be happening to the north
of 31N during this event. The sea heights are expected
to reach 20 feet near 31N75W on Sunday night.
The NE swell will continue to produce sea heights of
12 feet and greater through Tuesday evening.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
of Sierra Leone, to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from
03N21W, to the Equator along 28W, to 02S39W, to the
Equator along 48W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward
from 40W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through NE Florida, through
the coastal plains and the coastal waters of the U.S.A.
Gulf of Mexico coast, curving to a 25N95W 1014 mb low
pressure center. The stationary front eventually continues
to the coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, near 18N95W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is to the west of the
line that extends from the Tampa Florida metropolitan
area, to the central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico

Winds have been fresh to strong offshore Tamaulipas
and Veracruz, Mexico, and moderate to fresh elsewhere
W of the front. Seas are 5-8 ft W of the front. Moderate
to fresh winds are offshore the western sections of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere, except 1-3 ft seas in the far NE Gulf.

A stationary front lingers from near New Orleans in
Louisiana to weak low pres near 25.5N94.5W to the western
Bay of Campeche near 18.5N95W. The front will move slowly
eastward over the western half of the Gulf through Sun.
Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected off
Veracruz through this evening. Another low pres, expected
to develop just off the SE coast of United States tonight,
will allow a cold front to move southward over Florida
and the NE Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds
are expected behind the front in the N-central and
NE Gulf through mid-week. Low pres will develop along
the remnants of the front in the N central Gulf Tue
and deepen through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between
50W and 80W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 17N in the Caribbean
Sea to 30N in the Atlantic Ocean between 59W and 75W,
including in the Caribbean Sea islands.

Earlier heavy rainfall prompted flash flood warnings
in parts of eastern Puerto Rico this morning.
Fresh to strong NE winds are just offshore in the
S-central Caribbean, as well as in the SE Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere in the central
and eastern Caribbean, as well as in the lee of Cuba,
with moderate NE-E winds across the remainder of the
basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central and eastern
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure, and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea, is supporting fresh to
strong NE to E winds through the Windward Passage, to the
south of Hispaniola, in the Gulf of Honduras, in the lee
of eastern Cuba, and in the south central Caribbean Sea.
Fresh easterly trade winds are in the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Moderate winds are in the rest of the western
Caribbean Sea. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in the
central Caribbean, 6-8 ft from the lee of the Windward
Passage to NE Jamaica and mainly 4-6 ft elsewhere.

A broad inverted trough from near 16N71W across central
Hispaniola and N-NE into the Atlantic is accompanied by
very active weather. The trough will shift W and into
the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba while weakening through
Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build modestly
across the basin behind the trough and allow for fresh
to strong winds in the S-central Caribbean to pulse at
night through the next several days. Winds and seas in
the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlc E of the
trough will gradually diminish through Sun. Weak high
pressure will then prevail N of the area Mon through
Wed ahead of a strong cold front that will move across
the NW Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between
50W and 80W. Multiple individual upper level cyclonic
circulation centers are in the area of broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow, mostly between 58W and 75W. An
inverted surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along
29N67W 23N70W 16N71W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 17N in the Caribbean
Sea to 30N in the Atlantic Ocean between 59W and 75W,
including in the Caribbean Sea islands. The inverted
surface trough is moving through broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow in the Atlantic Ocean.

W of the trough axis, winds are moderate from the
NE-E, with seas of 4-7 ft. E of the trough axis, winds are fresh
from the E-SE, with 6-10 ft seas S of about 27N and W of 40W.
A central Atlantic 1024 mb high pressure center is near 31N52W.
Gentle to moderate winds are N of 25N. Similar winds prevail
in the remainder of the open Atlantic waters. Seas of 7-9 ft
in NW-N swell are N of 29N between 28W and 42W, associated
a 31N22W-to-28N30W cold front. A surface trough continues from
28N30W 28N36W 26N37W 25N43W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail in the
remainder of the open Atlantic waters.

A broad inverted trough accompanied by very active
weather extends from near 29N67W to central Hispaniola,
and will continue to shift W and weaken through Sun
night, while reaching the central Bahamas. Atlantic
high pres is drapped across the waters N of the trough,
and is producing fresh winds and seas to 10 ft E of
the trough. Winds and seas across the region will
gradually diminish through Sun as the high pres
weakens. A strong cold front is expected to move
offshore of the SE U.S. and NE Florida today through
early Sun, and sink SE across NW portions, reaching
from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun evening,
and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Mon evening.
A large area of strong to gale-force N to NE winds,
storm-force just N of 31N, and significant NE swell
will build into the area behind the front, spreading
across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue.
The front may stall along 25N/26N by the middle of
next week.

$$
mt
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