[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 07 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains
of Guinea, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W, to 05N25W,
to the Equator along 31W, to 01S43W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward from
40W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front/stationary front passes through the Florida
Panhandle, to SE Louisiana, to a weak 1015 mb low pressure
center that is off the coast of Brownsville in Texas, into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the west of the
line that extends from the Tampa Florida metropolitan area
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong N
winds and 6-8 ft seas are found west of the cold front, with
fresh to strong NE winds and 4-6 ft seas north of the frontal
boundary. Fresh to strong winds and 5-7 ft seas are off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh easterly winds, and building 4 to 6
foot sea heights, are in the Florida Straits. Winds are
gentle to moderate elsewhere, with 3-5 ft sea heights.

A weak cold front lingers across the NW and W Gulf,
from the SE Louisiana coast to weak low pressure just offshore
of Brownsville, TX then extends southward to just S of Veracruz,
Mexico. The front will move slowly eastward over the western
half of the Gulf trough Sun. Fresh to locally strong northerly
winds are expected to the W of the low and front through today,
except persisting off Veracruz through Sat. Another low
pressure, expected to develop just off the SE of United States
Sat night, will allow a cold front to move southward over
Florida and the NE Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds
are expected behind the front in the NE Gulf. Low pres may
develop along the remnants of the front in the N central Gulf
Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between
54W and 80W. An inverted surface trough is in the
Atlantic Ocean along 30N62W 24N66W 16N68W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N
in the Caribbean Sea to 30N in the Atlantic Ocean between
58W and 75W, including in the Caribbean Sea islands.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure, and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea, is supporting fresh to
strong NE to E winds through the Windward Passage, to the
south of Hispaniola, in the Gulf of Honduras, in the lee
of eastern Cuba, and in the south central Caribbean Sea.
Fresh easterly trade winds are in the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Moderate winds are in the rest of the western
Caribbean Sea. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in the
central Caribbean, 6-8 ft from the lee of the Windward
Passage to NE Jamaica and mainly 4-6 ft elsewhere.

A broad inverted trough extends from the Atlantic
near 30N62W through the Mona Passage to near 16N68W, and is
accompanied by active weather. Atlantic high pressure is draped
to the N of the trough along 31N-32N. Fresh to strong trade winds
are found across the Caribbean to the E and W of the trough,
including the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Honduras, and in
the lee of eastern Cuba. Winds and seas will gradually diminish
tonight through Sun as the trough shifts W and weakens, and
reaches the central Bahamas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between
54W and 80W. Multiple individual upper level cyclonic
circulation centers are in the area of broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow, mostly between 60W and 75W. An
inverted surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along
30N62W 24N66W 16N68W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 15N in the Caribbean
Sea to 30N in the Atlantic Ocean between 58W and 75W,
including in the Caribbean Sea islands. The inverted
surface trough is moving through broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow in the Atlantic Ocean.

The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet within
350 nm to 700 nm on either side of the line 08N17W
12N27W 12N32W 14N36W 18N41W 17N51W 20N60W 26N70W.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong
NE winds are from 10N to 28N between 40W and the
30N62W 24N66W 16N68W surface trough. Mostly fresh
to some moderate NE winds are within 600 nm to
the west of the 30N62W 16N68W surface trough.
Fresh NE winds are from 08N to 19N between 30W
and 40W. Mostly moderate NE winds are from 30W
eastward from the ITCZ northward.

A broad inverted trough accompanied by very active
weather extends from near 30N62W through the Mona Passage,
and will shift W and weaken through Sun, reaching the central
Bahamas. Atlantic high pressure is drapped across the N of the
trough, along 31N-32N, and is producing a large area of strong
winds and seas to 10 ft E of the trough. Winds and seas across
the region will gradually diminish tonight through Sun as high
pressure also weakens. A low pres center is forecast to develop
along a frontal boundary just offshore NE Florida early on Sun.
The low will drag the cold front southward across Florida and
the western Atlantic. This system will bring strong to minimal
gale-force northerly winds, and significant NE swell across
the waters N of 26N and W of 65W Sun night into early next week.

$$
mt/ss
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