[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the
equator to 08N between 13W and 32W, and from 01S to 03S between
40W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak 1015 mb low pressure is centered over the NW Gulf near 27N96W,
with a stationary boundary extending NE to near Lake Charles,
Louisiana and a cold front extending south to Veracruz, Mexico.
Numerous thunderstorms are observed NW of these boundaries in the
coastal waters of Louisiana, Texas, and Mexico. Fresh to strong N
winds and 6-8 ft seas are found west of the cold front, with fresh
to strong NE winds and 4-6 ft seas north of the stationary
boundary. A surface trough NW of the Yucatan Peninsula supports
fresh to strong winds and 5-7 ft seas in the area. Easterly winds
are fresh in the Florida Straits, building 4-6 ft seas. Winds are
gentle to moderate elsewhere with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are forecast to pulse at
night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche this
evening. A weak low pressure over the NW Gulf and an attendant
front extending from the low center NE to near Lake Charles,
Louisiana and SSW to Veracruz, Mexico will move slowly eastward
over the western half of the Gulf trough Sun. Fresh to locally
strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the low and
front through today, except off Veracruz through Sat. Another low
pressure, forecast to develop just off the SE of United States
will allow a cold front to move southward over Florida and the NE
Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected behind
the front in the NE Gulf. Low pres may develop along the remnants
of the front in the N-central Gulf Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong NE
to E winds through the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola,
over the Gulf of Honduras, in the lee of eastern Cuba, and over
the south central Caribbean. Otherwise, easterly trade winds are
fresh over the eastern Caribbean and moderate over the remainder
of the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in the
central Caribbean, 6-8 ft from the lee of the Windward Passage to
NE Jamaica and mainly 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge extending
across the western Atlantic and low pres over northern Colombia
will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
through this morning. Fresh to strong winds in the Windward
Passage, in the Gulf of Honduras, and in the lee of eastern Cuba
will also diminish by this afternoon. Expect increasing winds and
building seas across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight
through Sat as a broad inverted trough moves westward across the
Atlantic just north of the islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N61W to 20N65W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 20N to 27N between 58W and
70W. An overnight scatterometer pass found fresh to strong E
winds on either side of the trough where seas are 6-8 ft.
Otherwise, a tighter than usual pressure gradient is supporting
fresh to strong trades south of 26N and west of 40W with 7-9 ft
seas. NE winds are moderate to fresh elsewhere, with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a broad inverted trough, with axis
currently between 62W-65W, will shift westward through Sun,
reaching the southeastern Bahamas. This feature will enhance winds
and seas east of the Bahamas through tonight as it interacts with
high pressure north of the area. A low pres center is forecast to
develop along a frontal boundary just offshore NE Florida early
on Sun. The low will drag a cold front to move southward across
Florida and the western Atlantic. This system will bring strong to
minimal gale-force northerly winds, and a significant swell event
mainly across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W Sun night into
early next week.

$$
Lewitsky
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