[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between surface
ridging associated with strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered
in the east-central Atlantic, and low pressure over NW Colombia
will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the central and
portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the
coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and Mon night.
Seas are expected to peak at 12 or 13 ft within the area of the
strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from
31N25W to 25N35W, where it begins to dissipate. A swell event
follows this front, with seas of 12-14 ft in long period NW
swell currently covering the waters N of a line from 29N35W to
26N45W to 31N45W. This swell event, with a leading edge period
of 14-16 seconds, will continue to spread southeastward across
the waters E of 60W tonight and Mon. Seas are forecast to subside
below 12 ft over the NE corner of the forecast area by Tue evening.
At this time, seas of 8 to 11 ft will dominate most of the waters
N of 13N and E of 55W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues SW to near 06N23W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N23W to 00N36W to the coast of Brazil near
01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 03N
between 18W and 20W. Elsewhere convection is limited.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered just W of the Florida Keys,
while a weak cold front is becoming stationary across N Florida
and the NE Gulf along 28N. A few showers are expected along the
frontal boundary. The most recent scatterometer data provide
observations of light to gentle winds across most the Gulf waters
with the exception of moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the
NW Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft W of 90W, and 1 to 3 ft E of 90W,
including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate tonight. Fresh to
locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the
Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period. High pressure and
fresh to locally strong return flow will prevail across most of
the W half of the Gulf Mon night through early Wed, ahead of the
next cold front. This next front is expected to move into the NW
Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W portions, where it will
meander through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Satellite derived wind data show fresh to strong trades over the
central Caribbean, with the strong winds of 30 kt within about
120 nm of the coast of Colombia. An altimeter pass indicates seas
of 9 to 11 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean while
gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are observed over
the NW part of the basin, with the exception of moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Patches of
low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving
across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers,
more concentrated over the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, as previously mentioned, the pressure gradient
between surface ridging associated with strong high pressure
centered in the central Atlantic, and low pressure over NW
Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds
near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and
Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward
Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the forecast period.
Seas to 10 ft in mixed N and E swell across the Tropical North
Atlantic waters will gradually subside Mon through Tue. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E Caribbean through
the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N25W to 25N35W, where it begins to
dissipate. A broken band of low level clouds with possible
showers is related to the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
are noted per scatterometer data within about 250 nm north of the
front. A couple of altimeter passes indicate seas near 15 ft in
the wake of the front. High pressure of 1030 mb located near
35N38W is behind the front and extends a ridge across the western
Atlantic to near 70W. Another cold front is moving across the
waters off NE Florida and stretches from 31N75W to near Cape
Canaveral. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front N of
29N to about 67W. High pressure of 1026 mb localed NE of the
Madeira Islands dominates the far eastern Atlantic.

Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are affecting the
waters between the Lesser Antilles and 45W. The wave heights in
these waters are 8 to 9 ft based on altimeter data. A tight
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower
pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong N to NE winds
between the Canary Islands and near the coast of southern Morocco
where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered across the
central Atlantic extends W-SW to the central Bahamas and
continues to support moderate to fresh E to SE winds S of 24N,
and seas to 9 ft. These winds and seas will diminish late Tue as
Atlantic high pressure reorganizes N of the area. The cold front
will move SE and weaken through late Tue. Fresh to locally strong
winds across the waters N of 28N in advance of this front will
lift N of the area tonight. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and
Turks and Caicos through Thu. Looking ahead, a broad inverted
trough is expected to develop along about 55W Wed night and shift
W through Fri.

$$
GR
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