[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure of 1029 mb in the central Atlantic and low pressure
over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in
the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week.
Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight
and Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 11-13 ft each night
under the strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from
31N28W to 21N50W, where it becomes a stationary front and
continues to 23N61W. A swell event follows this front, with seas
of 12-14 ft in long period NW swell, currently covering the
waters N of 25N between 33W and 50W. This swell event, with a
leading edge period of 14-16 seconds, will continue to spread
southeastward today. Seas will begin to lift north and subside
below 12 ft across the NE corner of the forecast area late on
Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 06N23W, where it transitions to the ITCZ.
The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 02N30W to 01S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ between
30W and the coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered offshore of SW Florida this
morning while a weak cold front extends across the N Gulf from
the Florida Big Bend to the S Louisiana coast. The high-pressure
center supports light to gentle variable winds over the eastern
half of the basin, with seas below 3 ft. Moderate to fresh return
flow prevails across great portions of the SW Gulf and western
Gulf, west of 95W, with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, the
front will sink slowly S across the NE Gulf today and dissipate
tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at
night off the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period. High
pressure and fresh to locally strong return flow will prevail
across most of the W half of the Gulf Mon night through early Wed,
ahead of the next cold front. This next front is expected to move
into the NW Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W portions through
Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between surface ridging associated with a
strong high pressure centered in the north-central Atlantic and
low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting strong to near
gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia, captured in the
latest scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are in the 8 to 13 ft
south of 15N between 72W and 80W. Winds for the remainder of the
central and eastern Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Honduras,
are moderate to fresh. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft, including in
the Mona Passage. Mainly moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are
in the NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force winds will prevail in
the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night.
Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each
night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected
in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the
forecast period. Seas to 10 ft in NE swell across the Tropical
North Atlantic waters will gradually subside through Tue.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E
Caribbean through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front is emerging off the SE U.S. coast, with a profound
surface trough ahead of it. The trough reaches from 31N75W to
Freeport, Grand Bahama, and to near Biscayne Bay, FL. A squall
line containing thunderstorms with frequent lighting, along with
strong SW winds, is noted north of 28.5N, moving eastward
between 75W and 80W. Fresh NW winds are behind the remainder of
the trough and frontal boundary. Ahead of the front, 1030 mb
high centered over the north central Atlantic extends a surface
ridge to the southern Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
southern edge of the ridge and the tail of the front discussed
in the special features section along 21N continues to support
moderate to fresh E to NE winds, S of 25N between 65W and 50W,
and S of 30N between 50W and 30W. Outside of the 12 ft seas
described above, seas of 6 to 9 ft are mainly east of 70W,
reaching Puerto Rico and the northward-facing Lesser Antillies.
Seas of 9 to 11 ft are east of 60W behind the front.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, south of 20N and west of 40W
to the Lesser Antilles, fresh NE-E winds prevail where seas are
6 to 8 ft. In the NE basin, N of 20N and E of 20W, fresh to
strong NE winds prevail between NW Africa and the Canary Islands
along with seas of 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas in the vicinity of
the southern Bahamas will diminish late Tue after the passage of
a cold front forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern
U.S. this morning. Fresh to locally strong winds are across the
waters N of 27N in advance of this new front that is forecast to
reach E Bermuda adjacent waters to 27N73W early on Mon before
stalling and moving N of the area Mon night. Otherwise, fresh to
strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between
Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu.

$$
Mora
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