[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ian is centered near 27.2N 81.7W at 28/0000 UTC or 30
nm NE of Punta Gorda Florida moving NNE at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are 27 ft. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is inland Florida and along
its coastal waters as well as in the offshores waters N of the
northern Bahamas. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is
expected to move across central Florida tonight and Thursday
morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian
is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the
northeastern Florida coast, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
Friday. Further weakening is expected for the next day or so, but
Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the
Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the
northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Eleven center located near 16.7N 34.7W at
28/2100 UTC, or 615 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NNW at
8 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant. A general north to north-northwest motion is
forecast over the next several days until the system dissipates.
Some slight strengthening could occur overnight, but weakening is
expected to begin by tomorrow with the system dissipating by
Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 09N to 20N with axis near 26W, moving
W at around 10 kt. The wave lack significant convection at the
moment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through northern Mauritania from 16N16W
to 10N24W to 08N30W then resumes SW of T.D. Eleven near 12N38W to
10N47W. The ITCZ extends from 10N47W to 12N59W. Aside from the
convection associated with T.D. Eleven, numerous moderate to
strong convection is coming off the W coast of Africa from 03N to
14N between 07W and 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Even though Major Hurricane Ian is already inland Florida
centered near 27.2N 81.7W at 28/0000 UTC or 30 nm NE of Punta
Gorda Florida, tropical storm force winds extend nearly 90 nm off
the western coast of Florida from Cedar Key to Marco Island while
near gale force winds extend farther west to 93W and N of 24N.
Peak seas are 27 ft and are higher along the western Florida
coastal waters, however seas to 12 ft reach as far as 93W.
Numerous moderate convection is along the coast as well.

Ian will move into central Florida to near 27.8N 81.6W Thu
morning, then weaken to a tropical storm and enter Atlantic waters
near 28.8N 81.0W Thu afternoon. Ian will move then move north
toward 30.0N 80.6W Fri morning then continue north into South
Carolina waters through late Fri. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish across the northeast Gulf Thu night through Fri night,
with light breezes and slight seas persisting across the basin
thereafter. Looking ahead, a cold front may enter the northeast
Gulf late Sat or Sun then stall and dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Large seas are still occurring across the Yucatan Channel due to
large northerly swell from Major Hurricane Ian, which is about to
make landfall along the west coast of Florida. Recent ASCAT data
indicates fresh to strong N winds are still occurring in the
Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate convection associated with
Ian is still occurring over western and central Cuba, but has
ended for the Caribbean Sea.

An upper-level low centered northeast of the basin near 22N62W
extends an upper-level trough southwestward to the northeastern
Caribbean. As a result, upper-level divergence over the
southeastern Caribbean is enhancing scattered moderate to strong
convection from 10N-15N between 61W-71W. Similar convection is
noted in the SW Caribbean in association with the east Pacific
monsoon trough, mainly south of 15N and west of 75.5W. Recent
ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern and
central Caribbean. Gentle W winds are in the NW Caribbean,
becoming fresh northerly in the Yucatan Channel. South of 20N and
east of 80W, seas are 2-4 ft across the basin. Seas are 3-6 ft in
the NW Caribbean, except 7-11 ft in the Yucatan Channel.

Major Hurricane Ian is north of the area, making landfall on the
west coast of Florida now. Large N swell associated with Ian will
persist in the Yucatan Channel through Fri night. Elsewhere
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist
across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N78.5W to St. Augustine, FL.
Near-gale force NE winds are located north of the stationary
front, along the coast of Georgia and Jacksonville, FL. Major
Hurricane Ian is making landfall now on the west coast of Florida.
The combination of the front and outer squalls from Ian is
producing scattered moderate to strong convection, extending from
Florida eastward to a line extending from 31N72W to 24N76W. Winds
of 20 to 33 kt associated with the circulation of Ian are now
starting to emerge over the Atlantic to the east of Florida, and
seas are building.

An upper-level low centered near 22N62W is producing scattered
moderate convection from 19N-25N between 57W-65W. Another upper-
level low centered near 31N37W is inducing scattered moderate
convection north of 25.5N between 31.5W and 43W. Fresh NE to E
winds cover much of the area north of 25N and east of 40W. Seas
are 6 to 10 ft in this area. Elsewhere across the basin, mostly
moderate winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail.

Major Hurricane Ian will move onshore over southwest Florida this
afternoon, reach inland to 27.3N 82.1W this evening, then weaken
to a tropical storm over central Florida near 28.3N 81.4W Thu
morning. Ian will then enter the Atlantic off northeast Florida,
reaching 29.3N 80.8W Thu evening, and 30.8N 80.6W Fri morning. Ian
will continue to move north of the area into the Carolinas
through Fri night. Elsewhere moderate to fresh E to SE winds will
persist. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the
region Sat into Sun.

$$
Ramos
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