[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ian is centered near 27.1N 81.8W at 28/2300 UTC or 20
nm NE of Punta Gorda, Florida. Ian is moving NNE at 7 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110
kt with higher gusts. Ian is a strong category 3 hurricane.
Hurricane force winds extend out 45 nm from the center. Tropical
storm force winds extend out to 150 nm from the center. Peak seas
are 27 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
inland Florida and along its coastal waters as well as in the
offshores waters N of the northern Bahamas. On the forecast
track, the center of Ian is expected to move across central
Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western
Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on
Friday and approach the northeastern Florida coast, Georgia and
South Carolina coasts late Friday. Further weakening is expected
for the next day or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength
when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it
approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina
coasts late Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Eleven center located near 16.7N 34.7W at
28/2100 UTC, or 615 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NNW at
8 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant. A general north to north-northwest motion is
forecast over the next several days until the system dissipates.
Some slight strengthening could occur overnight, but weakening is
expected to begin by tomorrow with the system dissipating by
Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis extends from 21N24W through
the Cabo Verde Islands to 09N25W, moving W at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side
of the wave axis from 11N to 16N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through northern Mauritania from 16N17W
to 09N25W to 08N30W. The monsoon trough continues from 11N40W
10N47W. The ITCZ extends from 10N47W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N-10N between 10W-19W, from 01N-07N
between 19W-40W, and from 09N-14N between 53.5W-61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Although the winds and squalls directly related to Hurricane Ian
are confined to areas east of about 85.5W longitude, strong to
near gale force N to NE winds extend across the northern Gulf as
far west as 94W due to a strong pressure gradient between Ian and
an area of high pressure over east Texas. Significant wave heights
as far west as NOAA buoy 42501 near 26.0N 89.6W are 11 ft as of
28/1600 UTC. Seas of 11 to 16 ft cover most of the Gulf between
86W and 90W. Seas of 8 ft or greater cover the Gulf of Mexico east
of 94.5W and north of 22N. Over the southwestern Gulf, fresh N
winds prevail along with seas of 5-8 ft. Isolated showers and
tstorms are noted in the Bay of Campeche.

Major Hurricane Ian will move inland over southwest Florida to
27.3N 82.1W this evening, then weaken to a tropical storm near
28.3N 81.4W Thu morning. Ian will move off northeast Florida into
the Atlantic Thu evening to near 29.3N 80.8W then continue to move
north of the area into the Carolinas. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish across the northeast Gulf Thu night through Fri
night, with light breezes and slight seas persisting across the
basin thereafter. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter the
northeast Gulf late Sat or Sun, then stall and dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Large seas are still occurring across the Yucatan Channel due to
large northerly swell from Major Hurricane Ian, which is about to
make landfall along the west coast of Florida. Recent ASCAT data
indicates fresh to strong N winds are still occurring in the
Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate convection associated with
Ian is still occurring over western and central Cuba, but has
ended for the Caribbean Sea.

An upper-level low centered northeast of the basin near 22N62W
extends an upper-level trough southwestward to the northeastern
Caribbean. As a result, upper-level divergence over the
southeastern Caribbean is enhancing scattered moderate to strong
convection from 10N-15N between 61W-71W. Similar convection is
noted in the SW Caribbean in association with the east Pacific
monsoon trough, mainly south of 15N and west of 75.5W. Recent
ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern and
central Caribbean. Gentle W winds are in the NW Caribbean,
becoming fresh northerly in the Yucatan Channel. South of 20N and
east of 80W, seas are 2-4 ft across the basin. Seas are 3-6 ft in
the NW Caribbean, except 7-11 ft in the Yucatan Channel.

Major Hurricane Ian is north of the area, making landfall on the
west coast of Florida now. Large N swell associated with Ian will
persist in the Yucatan Channel through Fri night. Elsewhere
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist
across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N78.5W to St. Augustine, FL.
Near-gale force NE winds are located north of the stationary
front, along the coast of Georgia and Jacksonville, FL. Major
Hurricane Ian is making landfall now on the west coast of Florida.
The combination of the front and outer squalls from Ian is
producing scattered moderate to strong convection, extending from
Florida eastward to a line extending from 31N72W to 24N76W. Winds
of 20 to 33 kt associated with the circulation of Ian are now
starting to emerge over the Atlantic to the east of Florida, and
seas are building.

An upper-level low centered near 22N62W is producing scattered
moderate convection from 19N-25N between 57W-65W. Another upper-
level low centered near 31N37W is inducing scattered moderate
convection north of 25.5N between 31.5W and 43W. Fresh NE to E
winds cover much of the area north of 25N and east of 40W. Seas
are 6 to 10 ft in this area. Elsewhere across the basin, mostly
moderate winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail.

Major Hurricane Ian will move onshore over southwest Florida this
afternoon, reach inland to 27.3N 82.1W this evening, then weaken
to a tropical storm over central Florida near 28.3N 81.4W Thu
morning. Ian will then enter the Atlantic off northeast Florida,
reaching 29.3N 80.8W Thu evening, and 30.8N 80.6W Fri morning. Ian
will continue to move north of the area into the Carolinas
through Fri night. Elsewhere moderate to fresh E to SE winds will
persist. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the
region Sat into Sun.

$$
Ramos
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