[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Central Caribbean Sea:

A 1007 mb low pressure center is about 125 nm to the south of the
SW corner of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are
from Jamaica southward and Jamaica eastward. The comparatively
greatest amount of precipitation is concentrated from 12N to 16N
between 60W and 64W, from 15N to 18N between 61W and 67W, and
within a 120 nm radius of the 1007 mb low pressure center.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is to the west of the line
that passes through the Windward Passage, to 15N80W, to 13N73W.
The circulation is becoming better defined. The aircraft also
indicated that the system is producing wind speeds that range from
35 mph to 40 mph to the north of its center. It is possible that an
additional increase in organization in the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity may prompt the development of a tropical
depression or storm during the next day or so. It is possible that
Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories may be required as soon as
this afternoon. Anyone who has interests in Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this system, as it
is possible that tropical storm watches or warnings may become
necessary. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward from
10 mph to 15 mph in the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea,
during the next several days. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
in parts of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica during the next couple of days.
The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours is high. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook, at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 18N southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered
strong, is from the ITCZ to 10N between 46W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa at this moment. The ITCZ
passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 09N13W, to
09N23W, to 06N32W 07N40W 07N48W 06N51W 06N57W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered
strong, is from the ITCZ to 10N between 46W and 60W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the ITCZ to 11N
between 30W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from
the ITCZ southward, for the remainder of the ITCZ. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds are from 10N to 24N from 30W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SW Alabama, to 29N88W 21N90W, into the
SW Gulf of Mexico, to 20N96W at the coast of Mexico.
Precipitation: broken to overcast low clouds and
rainshowers from 23N northward between 83W and 90W, and from 27N
southward from 92W westward.

Gentle to moderate northerly winds, and sea heights that range
from 3 feet to 5 feet, are to the west and northwest of the cold
front. Moderate with locally fresh southerly winds, and sea heights
that range from 4 feet to 5 feet, are to the east of the front.
Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds, and sea heights that range
from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the rest of the Gulf.

A cold front, extending from Alabama to the NW Yucatan Peninsula
to Veracruz adjacent waters, will reach from Panama City to just
N of the Yucatan Peninsula by Mon morning, where it will stall
before moving northward gradually, along the northern Gulf by Tue
night before dissipating.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the possible tropical cyclone development in the Central
Caribbean Sea.

Gentle to moderate ESE to SW winds, and sea heights that range
from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the eastern and in the south
central sections. Gentle to moderate northerly winds, and sea
heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the western part
of the area.

A broad area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extending to the E Caribbean. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later today or early in the
week while the system moves WNW over the central and NW Caribbean
Sea. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica during the next couple of
days. Otherwise, with exception of light to gentle variable winds
in the SW basin, moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast
elsewhere through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 30N65W 25N67W 20N67W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward
between 56W and 61W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 20N northward from 61W westward. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds are curving anticyclonically, from 15N
northward between 50W and 63W.

Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SW to NW to NE winds, and
sea heights that range from 5 feet to 8 feet, are from 20N
northward between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Gentle to
moderate NNE to ESE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 6
feet to 9 feet, are from 08N to 16N between 33W and 50W. Gentle
to moderate ENE to SE trade winds, and sea heights that range from
4 feet to 7 feet, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward between 30W and 55W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 14N to 22N between 29W and
40W.

A surface trough curves through 31N20W to 26N32W. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite
imagery.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N43W. Light to gentle
winds are from 25N northward from 60W eastward. The sea heights
range from 5 feet to 7 feet, from 25N northward from 40W eastward.
The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 25N northward
from 40W westward. between the northwest African coast and 60W.
Within this area, seas at 5 to 7 ft in northerly swell are noted
east of 40W, while 3 to 5 ft seas are present west of 40W.

A surface trough extending from a low pressure system N of the
area will continue to support moderate to locally fresh N to NE
winds N of 27N and W of 67W through this evening. A weak cold
front will develop from that low tonight into Monday and move
across the waters N of 27N and E of 67W through Wed early in the
evening when the front is expected to move E of the area before
dissipating. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will
persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the
Windward Passage through Thu.

$$
mt/nr
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