[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Caribbean: A broad area of low pressure over the central
Caribbean continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. At this tie, a 1007 mb low is analyzed near 15N72W,
with a surface trough extending from 20N79W to the low to 12N65W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves
west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the central Caribbean.
Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica for the next couple of days. Seas will
range from 8-10 ft in the vicinity of the low through midweek.
There is a MEDIUM chance for this disturbance to develop further
within the next 48 hours. For more information, please see the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 18N southward,
and moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the wave axis and from 05N to 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is over the African continent based on the
latest analysis. The ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 06N25W
to 08N48W, then resumes from 08N50W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N89W to 19N96W. Scattered showers are
noted along and E of the front mainly N of 28N. Gentle to
moderate northerly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas exist behind the
front. Moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 4
to 5 ft are noted east of the front across the northeastern Gulf.
Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will reach the Florida Panhandle to
central Bay of Campeche by this afternoon. The front will
dissipate in the eastern Gulf by Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
weather and possible tropical cyclone development in the Central
Caribbean.

Other than the north-central basin mentioned in the Special
Features section, gentle to moderate ESE to SW winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft are evident at the eastern and south-central basin. Gentle
to moderate northerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the
western basin.

For the forecast, at a minimum, even if the broad low pressure does
not develop into a tropical cyclone, it can still produce gusty
winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean waters
through early next week. Moderate to fresh easterly trades should
return to the central and eastern basin by midweek next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A mid to upper-level trough reaches southward from near Bermuda
to near 24N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of
the trough axis north of 20N between 56W and 65W. The 1020 mb
mid-Atlantic high near 30N44W is supporting light to gentle winds
north of 25N between the northwest African coast and 60W. Within
this area, seas at 5 to 7 ft in northerly swell are noted east of
40W, while 3 to 5 ft seas are present west of 40W. Farther west,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh SW to NW to NE winds and
seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident north of 20N between 60W and the
Georgia-Florida coast. To the south, gentle to moderate NNE to
ESE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are noted from 08N to 16N
between 33W-50W. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE trades and seas of
4 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
occur between 56W-64W. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail across
the Atlantic waters W of 70W. These winds will persist through Mon
morning. Northerly swell has entered the forecast waters
supporting moderate to rough seas N of 30N between 70W-76W. The
swell/seas will diminish by Mon night.

$$
ERA
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