[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlc Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the waters off
northeast Florida late today. Strong to gale force SW winds will
develop north of 27N and east of the front on Sat, while strong to
just below gale force NW winds develop N of 28N and west of the
front. This cold front will reach from 31N53W to the northern
Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 23N. Gale force
winds will diminish by Sat night, and winds and seas will improve
across the region into Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07.5N12.5W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W
to 04.5N36W to 04N51.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 04.5N to 08.5N between 19W and 32W,
from 02.5N to 08.5N, between 32W and 48W, and from 06N to 13N
between 48W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from 1014 mb low pressure over
southeast Louisiana to 1012 mb low pressure along the coast at
Brownsville, Texas. Scattered moderate to strong convection has
moved out ahead of the front, and extends in a narrow 60 nm wide
line from 26N93.5W to near 29N91W. A larger cluster of similar
convection is being supported by a middle level trough, and
covers the waters from 26.5N to 29N between 84W and 87W. Patchy
dense fog is occurring across the south Texas coastal waters west
of the front. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted north of the
front with gentle to moderate southerly winds southeast of the
front. Seas are 2-4 ft across the eastern Gulf and 3-6 ft in the
western Gulf, except 6 to 7 ft west of the front.

For the forecast, the front will meander today and then
lift north tonight, while new low pressure moves into the Texas
coastal plains. The low pressure will move into the lower
Mississippi Valley through late Sat, while an attendant cold
front moves into the western Gulf. The front will weaken quickly
as it moves through the northeast Gulf Sun. High pressure will
build over the northern Gulf behind the dissipating front
through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the
Caribbean waters south of 16.5N between 67W and 85W. The gradient
between high pressure across the northwest Atlantic and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate easterly winds
across most of the Caribbean with seas 4-7 ft. In the NW basin,
gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the gradient will support moderate to fresh
trade winds over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola
through Sun night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.
Fresh winds are expected across the SE Caribbean Sun night
through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section on the gale warning issued for
the central Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N43.5W to 27N68W, where it has become
diffuse to the NW Bahamas. Showers and thunderstorms are
occurring along and ahead of the front, N of 28N and E of 50W.
Moderate to fresh N-E winds are north of the front with gentle
winds south of the front and west of 55W. Strong SW winds are
noted ahead of the front N of 30N and E of 50W. Seas are generally
7-10 ft north of the front and 5-7 ft south of the front. The
central and eastern Atlantic are dominated by a ridge extending SW
from the Madeira Islands. North of 20N, gentle to moderate winds
dominate with 8-10 ft seas composed primarily of northerly swell.
South of 20N, winds increase to moderate to fresh from the east
with 7 to 9 ft seas.

For the forecast, another cold front will move into the waters
off northeast Florida late today, then move quickly ESE. Strong to
gale force winds will develop north of 27N E of the front on Sat,
and north of 28N W of front. This cold front will reach from
31N53W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken
along 23N by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish across the
region late Sat through Sun. Southerly winds will increase off
northeast Florida Sun ahead of a reinforcing front expected to
move off the coast Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda
to the Florida Straits by Mon night.

$$
Stripling
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