[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250404
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlc Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the waters off
northeast Florida late Fri. Strong to gale force winds along
with rough seas will develop north of 27N near the front Sat.
This cold front will reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas
by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 22N. Gale force winds
will diminish by Sat night, and winds and seas will improve
across the region through into Sun. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to
04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to
08N, between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the northern
Gulf coast along a stationary front that extends from the
Florida Big Bend to the southeast Texas coast. Moderate easterly
winds are noted north of the front with gentle to moderate
southerly winds south of the front. Seas are 2-4 ft across the
eastern Gulf and 3-6 ft in the western Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift
eastward through Fri as low pressure develops over Texas. A weak
cold front associated with the low pressure has stalled along
29N from SE Texas to Florida tonight, and will lift north Fri
night while the low pressure moves into the Texas coastal
plains. The low pressure will move into the lower Mississippi
Valley through Sat, while an attendant cold front moves into the
western Gulf. The front will weaken as it moves through the
southeast Gulf by late Sun, while high pressure builds over the
northern Gulf behind the front through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the Gulf of
Honduras and across the Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters. The
gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate easterly
winds across most of the Caribbean with seas 3-6 ft. In the NW
basin, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the gradient will support moderate to fresh
trade winds over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola
through Sun night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.
Fresh winds are expected across the SE Caribbean Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section on the gale warning issued for
the central Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N47W to 28N70W where it becomes
stationary and continues to near Cape Canaveral, Florida.
Showers and thunderstorms are occurring along and ahead of the
front, N of 28N and E of 50W. Moderate to fresh N-E winds are
north of the front with gentle winds south of the front and west
of 55W. Strong SW winds are noted ahead of the front N of 30N
and E of 50W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft north of the front and
5-7 ft south of the front. The central and eastern Atlantic are
dominated by a ridge extending SW from the Madeira Islands.
North of 20N, gentle to moderate winds dominate with 8-10 ft
seas composed primarily of northerly swell. South of 20N, winds
increase to moderate to fresh from the east with 7 to 9 ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will become mostly stationary
tonight, then weaken Fri while it lifts northward. Another cold
front will move into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri.
Strong to gale force winds will develop north of 27N near the
front Sat. This cold front will reach from 31N55W to the
northern Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 22N.
Winds and seas will diminish across the region through into Sun.
Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida late Sun
ahead of a reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun
night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits
by Mon night.

$$
Flynn
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