[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: At 0300 UTC, a cold front stretches
from the Panama City, Florida SW to Veracruz, Mexico. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong to near gale
force N winds are found in the western Gulf waters N of the front,
while sustained gales are affecting the waters offshore Veracruz
and S of Tampico. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are behind the front S of
27N. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish overnight.
Afterwards, conditions across the Gulf will gradually improve
through Sun night. Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent,
reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to 05N35W to the
coast of Guyana near 09N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 03N to 10N and west of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING associated with a cold front draped across the Gulf of
Mexico.

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to near Veracruz,
Mexico. Behind the cold front, cold, dry continental air moving
over warm Gulf waters result in a blanket of stratocumulus clouds
that cover most of the region. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass show fresh to strong northerly winds behind the frontal
boundary and north of 21N. Seas in these waters are 4-10 ft.
Ahead of the cold front, the weather conditions are fairly
tranquil under a weak high pressure regime. Light to gentle
northerly winds and seas of 1-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
to north of Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. The front will extend
from southwest Florida to central Bay of Campeche by Sun evening
and dissipate by Mon. Strong N winds and high seas will follow the
front through Sun. Brief gale conditions are expected offshore of
Veracruz through early Sun morning. Conditions across the Gulf
are expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold front
moves into the NW Gulf Tue morning. This next front is expected to
reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Tue night,
bringing fresh to strong winds behind it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Synoptic observations indicate that a weak surface trough extends
from NW Colombia to Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Plenty of tropical
moisture and divergence aloft support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm on both sides of the trough
axis. Meanwhile, in the northeast corner of the Caribbean Sea an
approaching surface trough is sustaining some shower activity that
is affecting some of the Leeward Islands. The rest of the basin is
under mainly tranquil weather conditions.

A weak high pressure system near the central Bahamas and lower
pressures over northern South America result in moderate easterly trade
winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Seas in these
waters are 2-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is
resulting in light to gentle winds over the western basin and
moderate trade winds across the central and eastern basin. A
surface trough will move westward across the E Caribbean tonight
through Mon morning. This will briefly weaken the trade wind
flow across the basin. High pressure will build into the region
as the trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and
freshen the trade winds across the entire basin through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper level trough in the central Atlantic supports a
surface trough that extends from 30N60W to 19N66W. Divergence
aloft and tropical moisture being pulled northward are generating
a large area of showers and thunderstorms, from 21N to 30N and
between 55W and 62W. A bit farther south, another surface trough
extends from 21N60W to 13N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 12N to 21W and between 51W and
61W. A cold front extends from 31N21W to 21N30W, where it becomes
a dissipating cold front to 19N39W to 23N54W and then it continues
as a dissipating stationary front to 27N59W.

An expansive 1028 mb high pressure system is positioned between
Bermuda and the Azores near 33N48W. The pressure gradient due to
lower pressures associated with the aforementioned surface
troughs, frontal boundary and deep tropics sustain moderate to
locally strong easterly winds over most of the central and eastern
Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that
these winds are occurring north of the ITCZ to about 31N and
between 25W and 65W. Some of the strongest winds are found east of
the surface trough near the Leeward Islands. Seas are 6-10 ft in
the central and eastern Atlantic, with the highest seas occurring
near 20N45W. The vast northerly swell region was captured by an
altimeter satellite pass from a few hours ago, with seas near 11
ft near 23N50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong E winds and high seas
persist N 25N and E of 65W along a weakening frontal boundary that
extends roughly along 20N. These strong winds will diminish
tonight with seas gradually subsiding through early next week.
Moderate northerly swell will impact the waters E of 70W through
tonight before fading Sun. A trough extends along the Lesser
Antilles northward to 21N60W with thunderstorms east of it to 55W.
These thunderstorms could produce strong to near gale-force winds
and rough seas. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast
Florida early Sun with moderate to locally fresh winds and
moderate seas behind it. The front will weaken as it moves to a
position from Bermuda to central Florida by Mon night. The next
front will likely move off the NE Florida coast by mid- week.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net