[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: At 2100 UTC, a cold front stretches
from the Panama City, Florida SW to Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to
near gale force N winds continue to affect the offshore waters W
and N of the front while sustained gales continue in the waters
offshore Veracruz and S of Tampico. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are behind
the front S of 27N. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere along the
northern gulf offshore waters W of the front. Gale force winds are
forecast to diminish overnight. Afterwards, conditions across the
Gulf will gradually improve through Sun night. Please read the
latest the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to the coast of
French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 03N to 10N between 30W and 57W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 13N between 10W and
30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING associated with a cold front that extends from the
western Florida Panhandle to north of Veracruz, Mexico near
21N97W.

For the forecast, strong N winds and high seas will continue to
follow the front through Sun, which is expected to extend from
southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun evening.
Brief gale conditions are expected to continue offshore of
Veracruz through early Sun morning. Conditions across the Gulf
are expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold front
moves into the NW Gulf Tue morning. This next front is expected to
reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is resulting in
light to gentle winds over the western basin and moderate trade
winds across the central and eastern basin. Seas are 1-3 ft in
W of 77W and 3-4 ft across the remaining central and E Caribbean.
Otherwise, diffluent flow to the E of the base of an upper-level
trough supports scattered showers across the central Caribbean,
including E Cuba, portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will sink
southeastward and gradually build across the basin today. A
surface trough will move westward across the E Caribbean tonight
through Mon morning. This will briefly weaken the trade wind flow
across the basin. High pressure will build into the region as the
trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the
trade winds across the entire basin through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong E winds and high seas persist N 25N and E of 65W along a
stalled frontal boundary that extends roughly along 25N-26N.
Fresh to strong E to SE winds are also S of 25N between 55W and
60W being supported by a convectively active surface trough that
is to the E of the Leeward Islands. West of 65W, a weak pressure
gradient supports light to gentle variable winds with seas in the
4 to 7 ft range in decaying NE swell. Otherwise, the remaining
cetral and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters are under the
influence of a cold front that extends from 30N21W to 19N36W to
24N54W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are W of the front
with seas of 8-11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong winds associated with the
stalled front will diminish tonight with seas gradually subsiding
through early next week. Moderate northerly swell will impact the
waters E of 70W through tonight before fading Sun. A cold front
will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with
moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The
front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to
central Florida by Mon night. The next front will likely move off
the NE Florida coast by mid-week.

$$
Ramos
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