[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Subtropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL172022
431 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 /331 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

** NICOLE FORECAST TO MAKE A TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM AND BEGIN
STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY **

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Coastal Dixie,
      Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Dixie, Coastal
      Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 790 miles east-southeast of Tallahassee
    - 27.6N 71.6W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Nicole is still located in the southwest Atlantic Ocean and a turn to
the west is expected this afternoon. Some strengthening is forecast for
Nicole today ahead of its landfall with the east coast of Florida
sometime late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Nicole will cross
the Peninsula and eventually begin to bring impacts to the tri-state
area by Thursday and Friday. While tropical storm force winds will
likely not arrive until Thursday across the area, the large size of
Nicole will still bring wind gusts to near tropical storm force on
Wednesday and very breezy conditions are expected this afternoon as
well.

Tropical storm watches have now been issued for many of our marine
locations east of Apalachicola and along the coastline, a tropical
storm watch is in effect for coastal locations east of the Ochlockonee
River.

The main concerns with Nicole will be the windy conditions, especially
on Thursday and Thursday night when tropical storm force winds will
most likely arrive. Additionally, heavy rainfall will also be a
concern, especially across the southeast Florida Big Bend. While a lack
of rainfall will allow us to absorb some of the heavy rain, high
rainfall rates with this system will allow the potential for localized
flash flooding.

While storm surge concerns remain low due to the current forecast track
of Nicole, future westward shifts in the track could allow for a
period of onshore flow and the potential for storm surge across the
eastern and northern portions of the Apalachee Bay. While we are not
advertising any storm surge threat yet, folks should continue to
closely monitor the forecast for any changes.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible impacts across the Florida
Big Bend and into southern Georgia. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Potential impacts
include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become swollen and
      overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets
for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 10 AM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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