[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Nov 8 03:19:29 CST 2022

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Subtropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL172022
419 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal
      Glynn, Coastal Nassau, and Coastal St. Johns
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect
      for Eastern Clay, Eastern Putnam, Inland St. Johns, and South
      Central Duval
    - A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Trout River
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Central Marion, Eastern
      Marion, Inland Flagler, Western Marion, and Western Putnam

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 620 miles east-southeast of Jacksonville FL or about 640
      miles east-southeast of Brunswick GA
    - 27.6N 71.6W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Subtropical Storm Nicole is expected to bring widespread impacts
with prolonged coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and rip currents.

Nicole is currently expected to reach Hurricane level strength as it
crosses through the Bahamas and on towards the southern Florida
peninsula. The continued track has Nicole pressing into the southern
Florida peninsula and reaching towards the Nature Coast by Thursday
evening and then turning its path towards the northeast and crossing
northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and into the Carolinas Friday and
Friday evening.

Localized flash flooding risk on Thursday and Friday, mainly impacting
coastal areas and along the St Johns River. Tropical Storm Warning has
been put into effect for coastal southeast Georgia and northeast
Florida.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal northeast Florida, coastal southeast Georgia,
and the St. Johns River Basin. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across portions of coastal and inland northeast Florida. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across coastal northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across coastal northeast Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:Now is the time to complete all
preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your
emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset
of strong winds or possible flooding.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 1030, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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