[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:
A a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of
Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of this area of low pressure, and a
subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form early this
week while the system moves generally westward to west-
northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. The system is
expected to start producing gale force winds today. Regardless of
development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding,
gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion
along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida
east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
during the early to middle part of this week. The disturbance is
also expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands this weekend. Interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system. This system also has a medium
chance of development over the next 48 hours and the next 5 days.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

Low pressure in the Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have recently decreased in coverage in
association with a well-defined low pressure area located several
hundred miles east of Bermuda. If the shower and thunderstorm
activity re- develops near the center, a short-lived tropical
depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or so while
the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward over
the central Atlantic. The system is forecast to turn northward and
northeastward and merge with a strong cold front by the middle of
this week, and further development is not expected beyond that
time.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 44W, from 17N
southward, moving westward around 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N
between 40W and 46W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Africa near 09N13W to
07N23W. The ITCZ continues from 07N23W to 06N41W. It resumes from
08N46W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 20W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnants of Lisa continue to meander over the SW Gulf. Weak
high pressure prevails elsewhere across the Gulf. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are over the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 1-3
ft range over the eastern Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient is expected to tighten
between high pressure building southward over the area and broad
low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas starting
late today. This pattern will result in increasing winds and
building seas Mon through Thu over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Developing low pressure is centered just south of Hispaniola.
There is a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean supporting
mainly light to gentle winds, reaching locally moderate speeds
just north of Colombia. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the
waters east of 75W, and 1-3 ft west of 75W.

For the forecast, favorable conditions aloft support the
development of broad low pressure near Hispaniola today. This
pattern will support strong to near-gale force winds over the
Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with rough seas. These
conditions will improve through the early part of the week.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas
will persist through the early and middle portions of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a gale-
warning over the SW N Atlc waters.

Broad troughing prevails over the SW N Atlc. A large area of
active convection is found from 17N to 29N between 55W and 70W.
High pressure prevails north of the area as well as over the
waters east of 50W. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and the trough is supporting fresh to strong winds north
of 25N between 65W and 80W. Fresh to strong winds are also noted
NE of Puerto Rico and east of the northern Windward Islands.
Northerly swell dominates the waters north of 20N and west of
50W, with seas in the 10-12 ft range north of 25N, and seas of 7-9
ft south of 25N. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft
prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, large NE swell will prevail across the
entire area today. Broad low pressure is expected form north of
Hispaniola today. Conditions are favorable for a subtropical or
tropical depression to form during the early part of next week
while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward
over the southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between
the low and strong high pressure farther north will lead to a
broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low,
possibly reaching minimal gale force with rough seas north of the
Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late today and
tonight. Strong to gale force winds and rough seas are possible
off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low
pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north
of the area.

$$
AL
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