[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 06 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS...

Gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 12 feet to 14
feet, are forecast to develop in about 18 hours, in the area
that is from 21N to 24N between 63W and 64W. A 1008 mb Caribbean
Sea low pressure center is near 17N69W. This feature is forecast
to move northward into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, to the
north of Hispaniola. The environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development. It is likely for a
subtropical or tropical depression to form early next week. The
general movement is expected to be westward to west-
northwestward in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Expect an
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
parts of the central and northwestern Bahamas, during the early
to middle part of next week. The disturbance is expected to
bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands this weekend. anyone who has interests in those areas
should monitor the progress of this system. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is
medium.

...DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The convective precipitation has become better organized, in
association with a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near
32N53W, several hundred miles to the east of Bermuda. A surface
trough extends from the 1010 mb low pressure center to 28N60W
23N70W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 240 nm to the south of the trough, and within
330 nm to the north of the trough. A frontal boundary extends
from the 1010 mb low pressure center, eastward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N northward from
53W eastward. The system appears to be acquiring some tropical
characteristics, as it separates from the nearby decaying
frontal system. It is likely for a short-lived tropical
depression or storm to form tonight or on Sunday, if these
trends continue. The system is forecast to move slowly,
west-northwestward to northwestward, in the central Atlantic
Ocean. The system is forecast to turn northward and
northeastward, and merge with a strong cold front by the middle
of next week. More development is not expected beyond that time.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings,
can be found in High Seas Forecasts that are issued by the
National Weather Service. The chance of formation into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can
be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC,
and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 17N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 600
nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 20N southward, moving
westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong in clusters is within 180 nm to the east of the
tropical wave from 13N to 21N, within 300 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from 17N to 21N. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere within 360 nm to 420 nm on either side of
the rest of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of NW
Sierra Leone, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W, to
07N32W 05N41W 04N44W 08N50W 09N55W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the
area that is from 11N southward from 40W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnants of Lisa are a 1008 mb low pressure center that is
near 21.5N95W. A weakening stationary front passes through south
central coastal Louisiana, to the coast of the Deep South of
Texas and NE Mexico. A surface trough extends from Jamaica,
through NW Cuba, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, to the Florida
Big Bend. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is to the east and southeast of the weakening stationary
front.

Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet
to 7 feet, are near the 1008 mb low pressure center. Gentle to
locally moderate winds, and sea heights that are reaching 5
feet, are to the northwest of the stationary front. Gentle E to
SE winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are
in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Remnants of Lisa will dissipate over the southwest Gulf tonight.
Elsewhere, a stationary front over the northwest Gulf will
dissipate through Sun. The pressure gradient is expected to
tighten between high pressure building southward over the area
and broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the
Bahamas starting late Sun. This pattern will result in
increasing winds and building seas Mon through Wed over the
eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
1008 mb low pressure center that is near 17N69W.

A broad upper level trough extends from the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea beyond Hispaniola, into the Atlantic Ocean. A
surface trough extends from Jamaica, through NW Cuba, into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, to the Florida Big Bend. A tropical wave
is along 60W/61W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10
knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
in clusters is within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave
from 13N to 21N, within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave
from 17N to 21N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere within 360 nm to 420 nm on either side of the rest of
the tropical wave.

Moderate to fresh SE to S winds, and sea heights that range from
5 feet to 7 feet, are in the eastern parts of the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds, and sea heights that range
from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the offshore waters of Panama and
northwestern Colombia. Gentle NE to E winds, and sea heights
that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the rest of the area.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 06/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.52 in Guadeloupe, and
0.25 in Curacao.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 75W in Colombia
westward, through Costa Rica/Nicaragua, into the Tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 16N southward from 70W westward.

Strong winds and rough seas prevail over the northeast
Caribbean. Favorable conditions aloft support the development of
broad low pressure near Hispaniola over the next couple of days.
This pattern will support strong to near-gale force winds over
the Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with rough seas
into Sun. These conditions will improve through the early part
of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to
moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions
of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
gale-force winds and a developing weather system, to be moving
from the Caribbean Sea into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A
second developing system is a 1010 mb low pressure center that
is near 32N53W.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet, from the Bahamas
northward from 70W westward. The sea heights range from 8 feet
to 14 feet to the north of the line that runs from 20N56W beyond
31N22W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from the
ITCZ to 15N between the 42W/43W tropical wave and 60W. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Strong to near gale-force winds are to the north
of the 28N60W 23N70W surface trough from the Bahamas eastward.
Mostly fresh, to some strong, winds are from 26N southward
between the Cabo Verde Islands and 60W. Moderate or slower wind
speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure north of the area will support strong to near gale
force easterly winds, mainly north of 27N through tonight. Large
NE swell will push southward across the entire area through Sun.
Farther south, broad low pressure is expected form north of
Hispaniola Sun. Conditions are favorable for a subtropical or
tropical depression to form during the early part of next week
while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward.
A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high
pressure farther north is expected to lead to a broad area of
strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly
reaching minimal gale force with rough seas north of the Leeward
Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and Sun night.
Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds and rough seas are
possible off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as
the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge
centered north of the area.

$$
mt/al
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