[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Remnants of former Tropical Depression Lisa is centered near
21.2N 95.2W at 05/1500 UTC or 135 nm NNE of Veracruz Mexico.
It is drifting N at 5 kt and the estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 20 kt with gusts
to 30 kt, and seas up to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted up 100 nm NW and NE of the center.
The remnants of Lisa is expected to dissipate by this evening.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Atlantic Gale Warning:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
forecast to move northward over the southwest Atlantic on Sunday
where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of
Hispaniola. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong
high pressure farther north is expected to lead to a broad area of
strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly
reaching minimal gale force with very rough seas north of the
Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas Sun evening and
early Mon morning. Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds and
rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from late Mon
through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a
strong ridge centered north of the area. In addition, coastal
inundation and hazardous surf are also expected. Localized heavy
rainfall is also possible across Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands
during the next few days. This system also has a low chance of
development over the next 48 hours and a medium chance of
development in the next 5 days. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 17N southward,
and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 09N between 38W and 41W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near
57W from 19N southward, and moving W around 15 kt. Isolated
thunderstorms are present from 13N to 20N between 56W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau
coast near Bissau to near 12N19W. Scattered showers are seen near
the coast of Liberia and the Ivory Coast. An ITCZ extends from
05N21W through 05N30W to 08N39W, and then from 09N42W through
09N50W to 12N56W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 150
nm along either side of the first ITCZ segment. Similar conditions
are present up to 80 nm north, and 50 nm south of the second
segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough along with an
embedded 1009 mb low near 12N82W are triggering scattered heavy
showers and strong thunderstorms over Panama and northwestern
Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the remnants of Lisa.

A cold front is along the Texas and northern Mexico coast.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up
southeast of the front over the northwestern Gulf. Away from the
remnants of Lisa, a surface ridge runs south-southwestward from
the Florida Big Bend area to the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle E to SE
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident across the eastern Gulf.
Moderate to locally fresh SW to NNW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas
exist over the northwestern Gulf. Moderate SE winds and seas at 3
to 4 ft prevail at the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, remnants of Lisa will dissipate this evening.
Elsewhere, high pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will shift
eastward today. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf
today, then stall and dissipate through Sun. The pressure gradient
is expected to tighten between high pressure building southward
over the area and broad low pressure that will approach Florida
from the Bahamas starting late Sun. This pattern will result in
increasing winds and building seas Mon through Wed over the
eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface to mid-level trough extends northwestward from
near the ABC Islands to beyond Haiti. Aided by strong divergent
flow aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms are found across
the eastern basin. This includes the Mona Passage, Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands and Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin.
Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present
over the eastern basin. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal SW
winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident at the offshore waters of
Panama and northwestern Colombia. Gentle NE to E winds and seas of
2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas prevail over the
northeast Caribbean. Favorable conditions aloft support the
development of broad low pressure in this area over the next
couple of days, which will become better organized as it moves
into the southwest Atlantic early next week. This pattern will
support strong to near-gale force winds over the Atlantic waters
near the Leeward Islands with rough to very rough seas tonight
into Sun. These conditions will improve through the early part
of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to
moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions
of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming gale
warning over the SW Atlantic.

A pronounced upper-level trough curves northeastward from a low
over the southeast Bahamas to beyond southeast of Bermuda.
Widespread moderate convection is occurring near these features
north of 20N between 56W and 73W. Farther east, convergent
southerly winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms north of 28N
between 48W and 52W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Tight gradient is between the 1031 mb Bermuda High and the broad
trough at the eastern Caribbean, creating fresh to strong ENE to
ESE winds with 9 to 12 ft seas in northerly swell at the western
Atlantic north of 25N between 55W and the Georgia-Florida coast.
To the south, gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 8
ft are present from 20N to 25N between 55W and the Bahamas.
Farther east, the surface ridge related to the 1025 mb Azores High
is supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft north of
23N between 30W and 55W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE trades and seas of 5 to
7 ft seas exist north of 10N between the African coast and 30W. To
the west, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to ENE trades
and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident from 09N to 20N/23N between 30W
and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 4
to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure north of the area
will support strong to near-gale force easterly winds, mainly
north of 27N through tonight. Large NE swell will push southward
across the entire area over the weekend. A large non-tropical low
pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern
Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by the latter part of the
weekend. The system is initially expected to be very broad and
disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics during the early part of next week, and a
subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early to
middle portion of next week while the system moves generally
westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. A
tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure
farther north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong to
near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching
minimal gale force with very rough seas north of the Leeward
Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and Sun night.
Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds and rough seas are
possible off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as
the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered
north of the area.

$$

Chan
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