[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050953
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Lisa is centered near 19.8N 95.5W at 05/0900
UTC or 50 nm NE of Veracruz Mexico moving NNW at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, with seas to 8 ft. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE
of the center. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Lisa is
expected to become a remnant low today, and dissipate Monday
morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Atlantic Gale Warning:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by
the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected
to be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to
acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early
part of next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could
form during the early to middle portion of next week while the
system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early
to middle part of next week. A tight pressure gradient between the
low and strong high pressure farther north is expected to lead to
a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the
low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with very rough seas
north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late
Sun and Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds and
rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from late Mon
through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a
strong ridge centered north of the area. Localized heavy
rainfall is also possible across Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands
during the next few days. This system also has a low chance of
development over the next 48 hours and a medium chance of
development in the next 5 days. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 37W, south of
20N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate showers are noted near
the wave axis.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 55W,
south of 20N, moving W around 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 50W
and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 09N13W to
07N16W. The ITCZ extends from 07N16W to 05N21W to 04N36W. It
continues from 04N39W to 09N52W. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 07N between 25W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
Tropical Depression Lisa.

Outside of T.D. Lisa, high pressure prevails across the Gulf.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail across much of
the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Lisa near 19.8N 95.5W 1008
mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt
gusts 35 kt. Lisa will become a remnant low and move to 20.2N
95.4W this afternoon, 20.4N 95.2W Sun morning, 20.0N 95.2W Sun
afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Elsewhere, high pressure
over the remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward today. A cold
front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early today, then stall and
dissipate through Sun. The pressure gradient is expected to
tighten between high pressure building southward over the area and
broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas
starting late Sun. This pattern will result in increasing winds
and building seas Mon through Wed over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from Hispaniola to Venezuela. Widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is over the
eastern Caribbean east of the trough. Fresh to strong winds are
over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are found over
the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in
the 6-8 ft range over the eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas prevail over the
northeast Caribbean. Favorable conditions aloft support the
development of broad low pressure in this area over the next
couple of days, which will become better organized as it moves
into the southwest Atlantic early next week. This pattern will
support strong to near-gale force winds over the Atlantic waters
near the Leeward Islands with rough to very rough seas tonight
into Sun. These conditions will improve through the early part
of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to
moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions
of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on an
upcoming gale warning over the SW Atlantic.

An upper level low near the SE Bahamas is supporting a large area
of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection S of 25N
between 55W and 70W. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 31N58W,
with a trough extending SW to near 25N61W. A surface trough
extends from the SE Bahamas across Hispaniola into the Caribbean.
The pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure north
of the area is supporting strong to near- gale force winds north
of 27N between 60W and 80W. A large fetch of NE winds are
producing seas of 8-12 ft north of 26N and west of 50W. Moderate
to fresh winds are found south of 27N and west of 70W. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are found elsewhere north of
20N. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure north of the area
will support strong to near gale force easterly winds, mainly
north of 27N through tonight. Large NE swell will push southward
across the entire area over the weekend. A large non-tropical low
pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern
Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by the latter part of the
weekend. The system is initially expected to be very broad and
disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics during the early part of next week, and a
subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early to
middle portion of next week while the system moves generally
westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. A
tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure
farther north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong to
near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching
minimal gale force with very rough seas north of the Leeward
Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and Sun night.
Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds and rough seas are
possible off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as
the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered
north of the area.

$$
AL
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