[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 16.0N 81.5W at 01/0900 UTC
or 200 nm SSE of Grand Cayman moving W at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 14 ft in the
NE quadrant. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted within 150 nm of the storm center. Lisa is expected to
maintain a steady westward track over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center will pass near or over the Bay Islands
of Honduras early Wed and approach Belize late Wed. Strengthening
is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane on Wed
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Peak seas are forecast to
build to 24 ft on Wed. Localized flash flooding is expected
across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and
northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, starting late Tue
continuing through Thu. There is potential for a dangerous storm
surge near where the core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 370 nm ENE of
Bermuda near 35N58W. Recent satellite based observations found an
area of gale force winds and seas to 15 ft NW of the low. Shower
and thunderstorm activity has increased and become better
organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development, and the system is likely to become a
tropical or subtropical storm within the next day or so while it
moves generally east-northeastward. By late Wed night or early
Thu, the system is expected to become fully extratropical and
merge with a larger non-tropical low over the north-central
Atlantic. The current NHC Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a high
probability of formation through the next 48 hours. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 58W, from 05N to 20N,
moving west at about 5 knots. No significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 08N14W. The ITCZ continues from 08N14W to 03N37W to
01S45W. An upper level low combined with a large area of deep
tropical moisture is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong
convection from 01N to 09N, between 05W and 40W. Isolated moderate
convection is elsewhere from 00N-19N between 05W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to
27N85.5W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 27N85.5W
to 25N89W. A surface trough is located in the W Gulf from
28.5N95.5W to 24N97.5W. This trough is triggering scattered
moderate convection over the NW Gulf, north of 24N and west of
91W. Winds are moderate to fresh from the E-SE in the western
Gulf with 3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to
moderate from the N-E with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will become stationary later
today through early Wed before moving east of the basin as a weak
cold front Wed night. The trough offshore Texas will persist
today, inducing fresh to locally strong winds in the Texas
offshore waters through this evening. Elsewhere, high pressure
will dominate the basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds
through Thu. SE to S return flow is expected to strengthen over
the NW Gulf toward the end of the work-week, ahead of a possible
cold front entering the far W Gulf over the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Lisa in the western Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the direct impacts from Tropical Storm Lisa, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N
between 65W and 75W. Winds are moderate to fresh from the east in
the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate winds are
observed elsewhere with 2-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa will move to near 16.4N
83.9W Tue evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.8N 86.3W Wed
morning before moving inland near Belize Wed evening. Lisa will
weaken to a remnant low Thu evening well inland near 16.8N 91.2W.
With the exception of light to gentle variable winds in the SW
Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are forecast
elsewhere through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N55W to 26N67W. A pre-frontal
surface trough extends from 31N52W to 26N59W. A line of moderate
thunderstorms is located within 60 nm of the surface trough axis.
Fresh W winds are W of the trough axis to about 63W, north of 28N.
Seas are 7-9 ft in this area. Farther west, ridging is leading to
gentle winds west of 67W and north of 26N, where seas are 5-7 ft
in NE swell. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are occurring
through the SE and central Bahamas, south of 25N west of 70W.

Farther E, a surface ridge axis extends from near 31N31W to 1022
mb high pressure centered near 29N37W to 24N48W to 24N62W to
28N71W. Light to gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas are near the ridge
axis. Farther south, fresh trade winds and 6-8 ft seas extend
north of the ITCZ to 18N, between 35W-60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from
31N55W to 26N67W will move eastward and dissipate tonight, then
continue moving east across the NE waters as a surface trough
through Thu. Another cold front will reach the N waters by Wed
afternoon. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will
bring strong easterly winds across the N waters, mainly N of 27N,
Thu night through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of
the Windward Passage through Thu.

$$
Hagen
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