[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 15.8N 79.8W at 01/0600 UTC
or 225 nm SSE of Grand Cayman moving W at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 14 ft in the
NE quadrant. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted within 150 nm of the storm center. Lisa is expected to
maintain a steady westward track over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center will pass near or just north of the Bay
Islands of Honduras overnight Tuesday and across Belize by late
Wednesday. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Lisa is expected to become a hurricane on Wed over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Localized flash flooding is expected
across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and
northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, starting late Tue
continuing through Thu. There is potential for a dangerous storm
surge near where the core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 370 nm
northeast of Bermuda near 35N58W. Recent satellite based
observations found an area of gale force winds and seas to 15 ft
NW of the low. Shower and thunderstrom activity has continued to
persist near and to the north of the center of the low overnight.
Some additional development is possible through late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, and the system could become a tropical or
subtropical storm while it moves generally east-northeastward. By
early Thursday, the system is expected to become fully
extratropical and merge with a larger non-tropical low over the
north-central Atlantic. The current Tropical Weather Outlook
assigns a medium probability of formation through both 48 hours
and 5 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 57W, from 05N to 20N,
moving west at about 5 knots. No significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 01S48W. An upper level
low combined with a large area of deep tropical moisture is
supporting isolated moderate convection from 01N to 15N, between
15W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico, from
near Apalachicola, Florida to the SW Gulf near 22N95W. A surface
trough in the western Gulf is triggering scattered moderate
convection from 24N to 27N, between 95W and 98W. Winds are
moderate to fresh from the E-SE in the western Gulf with 2-4 ft
seas. In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate from the
N-E with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida Big
Bend near 30N84W to 23N90W. The front will lift N through Tue
before dissipating. A trough will form just offshore Texas on Tue,
inducing fresh to locally strong winds in the Texas offshore
waters through Tue night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate
the basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds through Thu.
Southerly return flow is expected to strengthen over the NW Gulf
toward the end of the work-week, ahead of a possible cold front
entering the W Gulf over the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Lisa in the Central Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the direct impacts from Tropical Storm Lisa, widely
isolated convection is observed in the central and eastern
Caribbean. Winds are moderate to fresh from the east in the
eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate winds are observed
elsewhere with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa is near 15.6N 79.1W 1002 mb
at 11 PM EDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Lisa will move to near 16.4N 83.9W Tue
evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.8N 86.3W Wed morning
before moving inland near Belize Wed evening. Lisa will weaken to
a remnant low Thu evening well inland near 16.8N 91.2W. With the
exception of light to gentle variable winds in the SW Caribbean,
moderate to locally fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere
through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N55W to 27N68W. A few showers and
thunderstorms are observed along and within 120 nm ahead of the
front. Recent satellite-based observations found moderate to
fresh westerly winds behind the front with 7-9 ft seas in
northerly swell. Winds and seas are higher north of 31N.
Conditions are moderate ahead of the front. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a subtropical ridge extending SW from
the Azores to roughly 25N60W. Winds are light to gentle within
the ridge, gradually increasing to moderate NE-E winds south of
the ridge. Seas are in the 4-8 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N55W to
27N68W. The cold front will move eastward across the NE waters
through Wed while dissipating. Then, a frontal trough will persist
moving SE through Thu. Another cold front will reach the N waters
on Thu. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring
fresh to strong easterly winds across the N waters, mainly N of
27N through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds
will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the
Windward Passage through Thu.

$$
Flynn
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